Ligue 1, round 8 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK

Toulouse — Troyes

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Model prediction for 24 October

Toulouse73%
Draw17%
Troyes10%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Toulouse are clear favourites: 73% against 10% for the opponent, draw 17%.

3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).

Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 52%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Toulouse are about 1.2 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Toulouse — Troyes What is xG?2.2–0.8
Toulouse not to lose90%
Troyes not to lose27%
No draw83%
Both teams to score: yes52%
Both teams to score: no48%
Total over 2.560%
Total under 2.540%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Toulouse
  • Toulouse goals
  • Troyes goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

Toulouse

  • 10.10away · Monaco2:2
  • 19.09Le Havre3:2
  • 12.09away · Lorient2:2
  • 03.09Lille0:1
  • 29.08away · Brest2:2

Troyes

  • 11.10Marseille0:2
  • 19.09away · Angers0:2
  • 13.09away · Lille0:2
  • 06.09Strasbourg2:6
  • 29.08away · Lorient2:1

Head to head

  • 01.02.2023Toulouse — Troyes4:1
  • 14.08.2022Troyes — Toulouse0:3

Full record: 4 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
14Le Mans613210–12-26
15Toulouse61329–11-26
16, Relegation play-offAuxerre62048–16-86
17, RelegationTroyes61144–13-94
18, RelegationLe Havre60244–8-42

Season 2026/27

Full table

Ligue 1 on the same day

  • LensParis FCpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 73% will not happen in roughly 27 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →