Ligue 1, round 8 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Lens — Paris FC
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Lens are clear favourites: 60% against 18% for the opponent, draw 22%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Lens are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Lens — Paris FC What is xG? | 1.9–1.1 | |
| Lens not to lose | 82% | |
| Paris FC not to lose | 40% | |
| No draw | 78% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 58% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 42% |
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Form
- 13.10Sporting CP0:2
- 09.10Lyon2:1
- 18.09away · Monaco1:2
- 13.09away · Le Mans2:2
- 10.09away · Slavia Prague3:2
Head to head
- 14.02.2026Paris FC — Lens0:5
- 19.10.2025Lens — Paris FC2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Champions League qualifying | Lyon | 6 | 3 | +7 | 11 |
| 5, Europa League or Conference League | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | +4 | 11 |
| 6, Europa League or Conference League | Paris Saint-Germain | 6 | 3 | +3 | 11 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
Ligue 1 on the same day
- ToulouseTroyespreliminary7317101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →