Uzbekistan Super League, round 26 · Friday, 30 October, MSK
Xorazm — Pakhtakor Tashkent
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 30 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Pakhtakor Tashkent are clear favourites: 56% against 19% for the opponent, draw 25%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 50%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Pakhtakor Tashkent are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Xorazm — No. 14, 22 pts; Pakhtakor Tashkent — No. 2, 52 pts. A gap of 30 pts.
- Xorazm: winless in 5; Pakhtakor Tashkent: 4 wins in a row.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Xorazm — Pakhtakor Tashkent What is xG? | 0.9–1.7 | |
| Xorazm not to lose | 44% | |
| Pakhtakor Tashkent not to lose | 81% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 50% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Xorazm
- Xorazm goals
- Pakhtakor Tashkent goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 07.10away · Neftchi Fargona2:2
- 21.09Qizilqum Zarafshon1:3
- 10.09Sogdiana0:0
- 03.09away · AGMK0:1
- 25.08away · Andijon0:1
- 09.10Bunyodkor Tashkent3:1
- 19.09away · Mashal Muborak2:1
- 09.09away · AGMK3:1
- 04.09Andijon3:0
- 25.08away · Dinamo Samarkand1:1
Head to head
- 21.07.2026Pakhtakor Tashkent — Xorazm2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Fargona | 23 | 16 | +33 | 52 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor Tashkent | 23 | 15 | +21 | 52 |
| 3 | Navbahor Namangan | 23 | 13 | +18 | 45 |
| 13 | Kokand 1912 | 23 | 5 | -8 | 23 |
| 14 | Xorazm | 23 | 5 | -14 | 22 |
| 15 | Bunyodkor Tashkent | 23 | 7 | -16 | 22 |
Uzbekistan Super League on the same day
- Kokand 1912Qizilqum Zarafshonpreliminary4230281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.3
- SogdianaBuxoropreliminary3526402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →