Serie B: 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 320 matches to play · updated 13 October 2026
The model played the remaining 320 matches 10,000 times. Palermo have the best chance to win the title: 43%, Modena 18%. Closest to the drop: LR Vicenza (43%).
Race for the title
| Date | Palermo | Modena | Pisa | Catanzaro | Mantova | Cremonese |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 August | 25% | 10% | 7% | 12% | 6% | 8% |
| 31 August | 31% | 19% | 9% | 7% | 9% | 3% |
| 7 September | 31% | 15% | 16% | 5% | 7% | 5% |
| 14 September | 30% | 16% | 8% | 6% | 9% | 5% |
| 21 September | 32% | 21% | 8% | 4% | 7% | 4% |
| 28 September | 32% | 21% | 8% | 4% | 8% | 4% |
| 5 October | 34% | 21% | 8% | 4% | 7% | 4% |
| 12 October | 43% | 19% | 10% | 1% | 10% | 1% |
| 13 October | 43% | 18% | 11% | 1% | 11% | 2% |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest. Upper zones include the ones above: “Up or play-offs” counts “Promotion” too.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | Title | Promotion | Up or play-offs | Play-out | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palermo | 16 (6) | 74 | 16 | 43%▲9 | 62%▲11 | 94%▲5 | <1%▼1 | <1% |
| 2 | Modena | 13 (6) | 67 | 19 | 18%▼3 | 38%▲1 | 87%▲4 | 1% | <1%▼1 |
| 3 | Pisa | 10 (6) | 63 | 15 | 11%▲3 | 25%▲8 | 77%▲16 | 2%▼3 | 1%▼3 |
| 4 | Mantova | 14 (6) | 63 | 12 | 11%▲4 | 24%▲7 | 75%▲16 | 2%▼3 | 2%▼3 |
| 5 | Südtirol | 12 (6) | 56 | 5 | 3%▼1 | 7%▼3 | 51% | 6%▼1 | 4%▼1 |
| 6 | Avellino | 10 (6) | 56 | 9 | 3%▲2 | 9%▲5 | 53%▲22 | 6%▼6 | 5%▼10 |
| 7 | Ascoli | 11 (6) | 54 | 3 | 2%▼1 | 6%▼1 | 44%▲3 | 8%▼2 | 8%▼2 |
| 8 | Hellas Verona | 7 (6) | 53 | 2 | 2%▼2 | 6%▼3 | 44%▼1 | 9%▲1 | 9% |
| 9 | Benevento | 10 (6) | 52 | 6 | 1% | 4%▲1 | 37%▲12 | 10%▼4 | 10%▼11 |
| 10 | Cremonese | 6 (6) | 52 | 4 | 2%▼2 | 5%▼4 | 37%▼10 | 10%▲2 | 11%▲2 |
| 11 | Juve Stabia | 6 (6) | 51 | 18 | 1%▼1 | 4%▼2 | 36%▼2 | 10% | 11% |
| 12 | Virtus Entella | 6 (6) | 50 | 10 | 1%▼1 | 3%▼2 | 32%▼3 | 12%▲1 | 13% |
| 13 | Catanzaro | 3 (6) | 48 | 13 | 1%▼3 | 3%▼5 | 27%▼16 | 13%▲4 | 20%▲9 |
| 14 | Cesena | 7 (6) | 47 | 7 | <1%▼2 | 2%▼3 | 24%▼10 | 14%▲3 | 20%▲7 |
| 15 | Padova | 7 (6) | 45 | 17 | <1%▼1 | 1%▼2 | 17%▼10 | 16%▲3 | 26%▲8 |
| 16 | Empoli | 6 (6) | 45 | 14 | <1%▼1 | 1%▼1 | 17%▼7 | 16%▲2 | 27%▲6 |
| 17 | Sampdoria | 4 (6) | 45 | 20 | <1%▼1 | 1%▼3 | 17%▼13 | 16%▲3 | 26%▲10 |
| 18 | Carrarese | 4 (6) | 44 | 1 | <1% | 1%▲1 | 14%▲6 | 17% | 30%▼16 |
| 19 | Arezzo | 7 (6) | 43 | 11 | <1% | 1% | 14%▲2 | 17%▲2 | 34%▼5 |
| 20 | LR Vicenza | 5 (6) | 40 | 8 | <1%▼1 | <1%▼2 | 8%▼10 | 17%▲2 | 43%▲14 |
Chance of every place
Show the 20 × 20 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palermo | 43 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||
| Modena | 18 | 19 | 14 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Pisa | 11 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Mantova | 11 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Südtirol | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Avellino | 3 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Ascoli | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Hellas Verona | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 |
| Benevento | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| Cremonese | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| Juve Stabia | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
| Virtus Entella | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Catanzaro | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Cesena | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | |
| Padova | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | |
| Empoli | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | |
| Sampdoria | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | |
| Carrarese | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | |
| Arezzo | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 11 | 13 | |
| LR Vicenza | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 19 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.