Kazakhstan Hockey Championship · Monday, 23 November, 17:00 (UTC+3)

Aktobe — Karaganda

Model prediction for 23 November

Aktobe6%

Draw in regulation10%

Karaganda84%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Karaganda are clear favourites: 92% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects plenty of goals: 6.9 in total, against a competition average of 6.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 73%.

Why

Karaganda are more dangerous in attack: 5.1 expected goals against 1.9.

Facts

League table: Aktobe — No. 8, 13 pts; Karaganda — No. 4, 38 pts. A gap of 25 pts.
Last 5 meetings: Aktobe 0 wins, Karaganda 5.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Aktobe — Karaganda		1.9–5.1
Aktobe to win (incl. OT and shootout)		8%
Karaganda to win (incl. OT and shootout)		92%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		73%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		27%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Aktobe
Aktobe goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Aktobe

30.10away · Pavlodar7:4
29.10away · Pavlodar5:2
26.10away · Torpedo1:3
25.10away · Torpedo2:4
21.10Kulager1:4

Karaganda

30.10Almaty6:1
29.10Almaty4:5 SO
25.10Beibarys Atyrau6:0
24.10Beibarys Atyrau5:0
20.10Gornyak Rudny3:2

Head to head

06.09.2026Karaganda — Aktobe9:5
05.09.2026Karaganda — Aktobe8:2
07.02.2026Karaganda — Aktobe4:1
06.02.2026Karaganda — Aktobe8:3
06.12.2025Aktobe — Karaganda2:5

Full record: 22 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
3, Playoffs	Kokshetau	26	20	1	5	97–58	+39	41
4, Playoffs	Karaganda	26	17	4	5	108–60	+48	38
5, Playoffs	Kulager	24	13	5	6	87–62	+25	31
7, Playoffs	Almaty	26	11	1	14	66–92	-26	23
8, Playoffs	Aktobe	26	6	1	19	69–117	-48	13
9	Beibarys Atyrau	25	5	2	18	48–85	-37	12

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Kazakhstan Championship on the same day

17:00
Gornyak RudnyAlmatypreliminary
7723
1The model's most likely outcome: 117%Model's score: 4:15.7
17:00
KokshetauBeibarys Atyraupreliminary
8020
1The model's most likely outcome: 117%Model's score: 4:15.0
17:00
Nomad AstanaTorpedopreliminary
3763
2The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:45.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 84% will not happen in roughly 16 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →