KHL · Wednesday, 14 October, MSK
Barys Astana — Yekaterinburg
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 14 October
In play · estimate from before kick-off
In short
Yekaterinburg are favourites: 55% to win including overtime and shootout.
4.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 42%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.4 and 2.6.
Facts
- League table: Barys Astana — No. 13, 16 pts; Yekaterinburg — No. 15, 14 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Barys Astana 2 wins, Yekaterinburg 3.
- Days of rest before the match: Barys Astana 2, Yekaterinburg 8.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Barys Astana — Yekaterinburg | 2.4–2.6 | |
| Barys Astana to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 45% | |
| Yekaterinburg to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 55% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 42% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 58% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Barys Astana
- Barys Astana goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 12.10Novosibirsk2:3
- 10.10Avangard Omsk5:1
- 04.10away · Spartak Moscow4:3 SO
- 02.10away · Niznekamsk5:4 OT
- 30.09away · Bars Kazan1:4
- 06.10Avangard Omsk4:0
- 04.10Khabarovsk0:3
- 02.10Khabarovsk3:0
- 30.09Lada3:1
- 26.09away · Spartak Moscow4:2
Head to head
- 12.01.2026Yekaterinburg — Barys Astana2:1 OT
- 25.12.2025Barys Astana — Yekaterinburg1:4
- 16.12.2025Yekaterinburg — Barys Astana1:4
- 07.11.2025Barys Astana — Yekaterinburg3:2 OT
- 07.01.2025Barys Astana — Yekaterinburg2:3 SO
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Dinamo Minsk | 15 | 6 | -6 | 17 |
| 13, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Barys Astana | 14 | 8 | +14 | 16 |
| 14, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Bars Kazan | 15 | 7 | -1 | 15 |
| 15, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference | Yekaterinburg | 13 | 6 | +2 | 14 |
| 16 | Dynamo Moscow | 16 | 6 | -13 | 14 |
KHL on the same day
- 43572The most likely outcome came true: 223%1:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:3.4.7
- 66341The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:14.8
- 52481The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.3
- 60401The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.2
- 41592The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:45.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →