VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Thursday, 12 November, 17:00 (UTC+3)

HC Yugra — Gornyak

Model prediction for 12 November

HC Yugra55%

Draw in regulation22%

Gornyak23%

Model estimate at 13:45 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

HC Yugra are clear favourites: 68% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.3 in total, against a competition average of 4.7.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 30%.

Why

HC Yugra are more dangerous in attack: 2.6 expected goals against 1.7.

Facts

League table: HC Yugra — No. 12, 23 pts; Gornyak — No. 18, 20 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
Last 5 meetings: HC Yugra 4 wins, Gornyak 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: HC Yugra — Gornyak		2.6–1.7
HC Yugra to win (incl. OT and shootout)		68%
Gornyak to win (incl. OT and shootout)		32%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		30%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		70%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap HC Yugra
HC Yugra goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

HC Yugra

30.10away · Perm2:3 SO
28.10away · Toros Neftekamsk2:5
26.10away · Izhevsk5:4
24.10away · Olympia4:0
19.10Kristall Saratov3:1

Gornyak

31.10Dyn. Altay3:2
29.10Metallurg Novokuznetsk3:4 SO
27.10Krasnoyarsk0:3
25.10HC Norilsk0:2
18.10away · Kaluga3:1

Head to head

06.01.2026HC Yugra — Gornyak0:2
07.11.2025Gornyak — HC Yugra2:3
26.01.2025HC Yugra — Gornyak4:2
25.10.2024Gornyak — HC Yugra2:3 SO
04.02.2024Gornyak — HC Yugra2:4

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
11, Playoffs	Buran Voronezh	18	11	2	5	39–33	+6	24
12, Playoffs	HC Yugra	19	11	1	7	45–32	+13	23
13, Playoffs	Toros Neftekamsk	19	10	3	6	47–43	+4	23
17	Olympia	22	10	1	11	58–61	-3	21
18	Gornyak	17	9	2	6	42–39	+3	20
19	Dinamo St. Petersburg	18	8	3	7	49–54	-5	19

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

VHL on the same day

15:00
Dyn. AltaySKA-VMF St. Petersburgpreliminary
3070
2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 1:34.2
17:30
Kristall SaratovPermpreliminary
3862
2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 1:34.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →