VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Thursday, 12 November, 17:30 (UTC+3)

Kristall Saratov — Perm

Model prediction for 12 November

Kristall Saratov29%

Draw in regulation22%

Perm48%

Model estimate at 13:45 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Perm are favourites: 62% to win including overtime and shootout.

4.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (4.7).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 36%.

Why

Perm are more dangerous in attack: 2.6 expected goals against 2.0.

Facts

League table: Kristall Saratov — No. 14, 23 pts; Perm — No. 5, 28 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
Perm: 3 wins in a row.
Last 5 meetings: Kristall Saratov 0 wins, Perm 5.
Days of rest before the match: Kristall Saratov 9, Perm 13.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Kristall Saratov — Perm		2.0–2.6
Kristall Saratov to win (incl. OT and shootout)		38%
Perm to win (incl. OT and shootout)		62%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		36%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		64%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Kristall Saratov
Kristall Saratov goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Kristall Saratov

03.11Olympia2:3
25.10Tambov3:2
23.10Buran Voronezh4:2
19.10away · HC Yugra1:3
17.10away · Rubin Tyumen2:1

Perm

30.10HC Yugra3:2 SO
28.10Rubin Tyumen5:2
26.10Kurgan3:1
24.10Omskie Krylia2:3
19.10away · Dyn. Altay5:1

Head to head

24.02.2026Kristall Saratov — Perm0:3
30.09.2025Perm — Kristall Saratov4:2
12.12.2024Perm — Kristall Saratov4:3 OT
02.12.2024Kristall Saratov — Perm1:2
31.01.2024Perm — Kristall Saratov7:2

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
4, Playoffs	AKM	21	12	5	4	61–48	+13	29
5, Playoffs	Perm	19	14	0	5	56–32	+24	28
6, Playoffs	Orsk	19	11	6	2	53–42	+11	28
13, Playoffs	Toros Neftekamsk	19	10	3	6	47–43	+4	23
14, Playoffs	Kristall Saratov	18	11	1	6	47–54	-7	23
15, Playoffs	Tambov	18	10	2	6	48–47	+1	22

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

VHL on the same day

15:00
Dyn. AltaySKA-VMF St. Petersburgpreliminary
3070
2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 1:34.2
17:00
HC YugraGornyakpreliminary
6832
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →