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VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Sunday, 11 October, MSK

Omskie Krylia — Dizel

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Model prediction and result

3:2Came true
Omskie Krylia42%
Draw in regulation24%
Dizel34%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 3:2: the model's most likely outcome, Omskie Krylia to win (54% incl. overtime), came true.

Omskie Krylia are favourites: 54% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.2 in total, against a competition average of 4.7.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 29%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.2 and 2.0.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Omskie Krylia 3 wins, Dizel 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Omskie Krylia — Dizel2.2–2.0
Omskie Krylia to win (incl. OT and shootout)54%
Dizel to win (incl. OT and shootout)46%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)29%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)71%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Omskie Krylia
  • Omskie Krylia goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Omskie Krylia

  • 09.10Tambov5:1
  • 07.10Buran Voronezh0:1
  • 03.10Rubin Tyumen4:3
  • 01.10HC Yugra1:0
  • 27.09away · Dyn. Altay5:1

Dizel

  • 05.10Dyn. Altay3:1
  • 03.10Metallurg Novokuznetsk0:2
  • 01.10Krasnoyarsk2:0
  • 29.09HC Norilsk5:0
  • 25.09away · Kaluga3:2 SO

Head to head

  • 15.12.2025Omskie Krylia — Dizel2:1 SO
  • 03.12.2025Dizel — Omskie Krylia0:4
  • 26.01.2025Dizel — Omskie Krylia3:0
  • 28.10.2024Omskie Krylia — Dizel3:1
  • 19.12.2023Dizel — Omskie Krylia4:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
4, PlayoffsKaluga1493232–20+1221
5, PlayoffsOmskie Krylia13100337–19+1820
6, PlayoffsHC Norilsk1592435–33+220
21HC Yugra1260620–18+212
22Dizel1352629–31-212
23Dyn. Altay1252525–30-512

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • Omskie KryliaKristall Saratov13 October · VHL
    1The most likely outcome came true: 120%Final score 7:1. Model's score: 3:1.5.1
  • KurganDizel13 October · VHL
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 224%Final score 4:3. Model's score: 1:2.4.1

VHL on the same day

  • KrasnoyarskIzhevsk
    1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:1.4.5
  • Metallurg NovokuznetskOlympia
    1The most likely outcome came true: 116%Final score 2:0. Model's score: 4:1.4.8
  • KurganTambov
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%Final score 0:3. Model's score: 3:1.4.6
  • Rubin TyumenBuran Voronezh
    1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 4:3 in a shootout. Model's score: 3:1.4.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →