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VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Sunday, 11 October, MSK

Metallurg Novokuznetsk — Olympia

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Model prediction and result

2:0Came true
Metallurg Novokuznetsk72%
Draw in regulation16%
Olympia12%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Metallurg Novokuznetsk to win (84% incl. overtime), came true.

Metallurg Novokuznetsk are clear favourites: 84% to win including overtime and shootout.

4.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (4.7).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 38%.

Why

  • Metallurg Novokuznetsk are more dangerous in attack: 3.3 expected goals against 1.4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Metallurg Novokuznetsk — Olympia3.3–1.4
Metallurg Novokuznetsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)84%
Olympia to win (incl. OT and shootout)16%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)38%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)62%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Metallurg Novokuznetsk
  • Metallurg Novokuznetsk goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Metallurg Novokuznetsk

  • 05.10away · Kristall Saratov2:0
  • 03.10away · Dizel2:0
  • 01.10away · Tambov0:3
  • 29.09away · Buran Voronezh1:2 SO
  • 25.09Omskie Krylia1:2 OT

Olympia

  • 09.10away · Krasnoyarsk4:3
  • 06.10away · HC Norilsk2:3
  • 01.10Kaluga2:3 OT
  • 29.09AKM4:3 OT
  • 27.09Ryazan4:1

Head to head

  • 23.01.2026Olympia — Metallurg Novokuznetsk3:4 SO
  • 28.10.2025Metallurg Novokuznetsk — Olympia4:3 OT
  • 08.01.2025Olympia — Metallurg Novokuznetsk0:2
  • 14.11.2024Metallurg Novokuznetsk — Olympia5:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
6, PlayoffsAKM1483343–32+1119
7, PlayoffsMetallurg Novokuznetsk1483327–16+1119
8, PlayoffsKaluga1383229–19+1019
23Dyn. Altay1252525–30-512
24Olympia1451837–42-511
25Zvezda Moscow1451833–45-1211

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • Metallurg NovokuznetskIzhevsk13 October · VHL
    1The most likely outcome came true: 118%Final score 3:2 in a shootout. Model's score: 3:1.4.8
  • Dyn. AltayOlympia13 October · VHL
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%Final score 1:4. Model's score: 3:1.4.4

VHL on the same day

  • KrasnoyarskIzhevsk
    1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:1.4.5
  • Omskie KryliaDizel
    1The most likely outcome came true: 124%Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:1.4.2
  • KurganTambov
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%Final score 0:3. Model's score: 3:1.4.6
  • Rubin TyumenBuran Voronezh
    1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 4:3 in a shootout. Model's score: 3:1.4.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 72% will not happen in roughly 28 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →