AHL (American Hockey League) · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Pechanga Arena
San Diego Gulls — Henderson Silver Knights
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
In short
Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Henderson Silver Knights to win (53% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 53% fails in about 47 matches out of 100 on average.
Henderson Silver Knights are favourites: 53% to win including overtime and shootout.
6.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.8).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 61%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.9 and 3.1.
- San Diego Gulls: second game in two days — the model lowers their attack and defence.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: San Diego Gulls 3 wins, Henderson Silver Knights 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: San Diego Gulls — Henderson Silver Knights | 2.9–3.1 | |
| San Diego Gulls to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 47% | |
| Henderson Silver Knights to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 53% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 61% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 39% |
111 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap San Diego Gulls
- San Diego Gulls goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
Form
- 10.10away · Coachella Valley Firebirds3:6
- 05.10away · San Jose Barracuda4:5 OT
- 04.10away · San Jose Barracuda5:1
- 25.04away · Colorado Eagles1:6
- 23.04away · Colorado Eagles0:3
- 05.10Bakersfield Condors1:3
- 04.10Bakersfield Condors4:3
- 10.05away · Colorado Eagles2:6
- 07.05away · Colorado Eagles0:4
- 05.05Colorado Eagles4:3 OT
Head to head
- 05.02.2026San Diego Gulls — Henderson Silver Knights7:4
- 17.12.2025Henderson Silver Knights — San Diego Gulls1:0
- 14.12.2025San Diego Gulls — Henderson Silver Knights1:2 SO
- 13.12.2025San Diego Gulls — Henderson Silver Knights4:1
- 06.11.2025Henderson Silver Knights — San Diego Gulls3:6
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts | P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Rochester Americans | 4 | 2 | +6 | 5 | .625 |
| 15 | San Diego Gulls | 4 | 2 | +2 | 5 | .625 |
| 16 | Iowa Wild | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | .625 |
| 26 | Rockford IceHogs | 3 | 1 | -2 | 2 | .333 |
| 27 | Henderson Silver Knights | 3 | 1 | -3 | 2 | .333 |
| 28 | San Jose Barracuda | 4 | 1 | -9 | 2 | .250 |
Next matches
- San Diego GullsOntario Reign15 October · AHL44562The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.4
- Henderson Silver KnightsCoachella Valley Firebirds15 October · AHL50502The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 2:35.8
AHL on the same day
- 39612The most likely outcome came true: 221%1:7Final score 1:7. Model's score: 2:4.5.5
- 50501The most likely outcome came true: 122%2:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 3:2.5.5
- 40602The most likely outcome came true: 221%2:5Final score 2:5. Model's score: 2:4.5.6
- 55451The most likely outcome came true: 121%2:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 4:2.5.7
- 52481The most likely outcome came true: 122%4:3Final score 4:3. Model's score: 3:2.5.4
- 42582The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%4:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 2:3.5.1
- 65351The most likely outcome did not happen: 120%2:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 4:2.5.6
- 47532The most likely outcome came true: 221%4:5OTFinal score 4:5 in overtime. Model's score: 2:4.5.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →