NHL · Wednesday, 28 October, MSK

San Jose Sharks — Buffalo Sabres

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Model prediction for 28 October

San Jose Sharks29%
Draw in regulation22%
Buffalo Sabres49%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Buffalo Sabres are favourites: 61% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.0).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 60%.

Why

  • Buffalo Sabres are more dangerous in attack: 3.3 expected goals against 2.6.

Facts

  • League table: San Jose Sharks — No. 24, 6 pts; Buffalo Sabres — No. 19, 7 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
  • Last 5 meetings: San Jose Sharks 1 win, Buffalo Sabres 4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: San Jose Sharks — Buffalo Sabres2.6–3.3
San Jose Sharks to win (incl. OT and shootout)39%
Buffalo Sabres to win (incl. OT and shootout)61%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)60%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)40%

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Form

San Jose Sharks

  • 14.10Boston Bruins3:6
  • 10.10Edmonton Oilers1:3
  • 09.10away · St. Louis Blues3:2 OT
  • 06.10away · Dallas Stars0:5
  • 04.10Los Angeles Kings5:4 OT

Buffalo Sabres

  • 14.10away · Montreal Canadiens3:4 SO
  • 12.10Florida Panthers5:3
  • 11.10Utah Mammoth1:4
  • 09.10Dallas Stars0:4
  • 07.10Minnesota Wild3:2 OT

Head to head

  • 20.03.2026San Jose Sharks — Buffalo Sabres0:5
  • 11.03.2026Buffalo Sabres — San Jose Sharks6:3
  • 05.03.2025Buffalo Sabres — San Jose Sharks2:6
  • 24.11.2024San Jose Sharks — Buffalo Sabres2:4
  • 28.01.2024San Jose Sharks — Buffalo Sabres2:5

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
18Montreal Canadiens631219–22-37
19Buffalo Sabres731319–26-77
20New York Islanders630319–15+46
23New Jersey Devils630316–22-66
24San Jose Sharks630316–23-76
25Dallas Stars621313–11+25

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

NHL on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →