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KHL · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)

Sochi — SKA St. Petersburg

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Model prediction for 21 November

Sochi30%
Draw in regulation21%
SKA St. Petersburg48%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

SKA St. Petersburg are favourites: 61% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.1).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 51%.

Why

  • SKA St. Petersburg are more dangerous in attack: 3.0 expected goals against 2.4.

Facts

  • League table: Sochi — No. 21, 14 pts; SKA St. Petersburg — No. 17, 21 pts. A gap of 7 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: Sochi 2 wins, SKA St. Petersburg 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Sochi — SKA St. Petersburg2.4–3.0
Sochi to win (incl. OT and shootout)39%
SKA St. Petersburg to win (incl. OT and shootout)61%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)51%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)49%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Sochi
  • Sochi goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Sochi

  • 03.11Niznekamsk1:2
  • 01.11Avangard Omsk2:1 OT
  • 29.10away · Lokomotiv Yaroslavl2:6
  • 27.10away · Salavat Ufa2:1
  • 25.10away · Lada4:3

SKA St. Petersburg

  • 04.11away · Vladivostok0:4
  • 02.11away · Bars Kazan4:3
  • 27.10Nizhny Novgorod3:4
  • 25.10CSKA Moscow1:3
  • 22.10Novosibirsk6:3

Head to head

  • 12.09.2026Sochi — SKA St. Petersburg0:1
  • 16.01.2026SKA St. Petersburg — Sochi1:2
  • 28.12.2025Sochi — SKA St. Petersburg8:4
  • 24.10.2025SKA St. Petersburg — Sochi8:1
  • 27.09.2025Sochi — SKA St. Petersburg2:4

Full record: 35 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
16, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceDinamo Minsk2286851–66-1522
17SKA St. Petersburg211011062–65-321
18Salavat Ufa221011161–67-621
20Novosibirsk24931254–69-1521
21Sochi22701538–75-3714
22Lada22451334–72-3813

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

KHL on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →