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Liiga (Finnish hockey league) · Monday, 9 November, (UTC+3)

TPS Turku — KalPa

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Model prediction for 9 November

TPS Turku48%
Draw in regulation22%
KalPa30%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

In short

TPS Turku are favourites: 60% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.6 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 36%.

Why

  • TPS Turku are more dangerous in attack: 2.6 expected goals against 2.1.

Facts

  • League table: TPS Turku — No. 9, 31 pts; KalPa — No. 12, 25 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: TPS Turku 2 wins, KalPa 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: TPS Turku — KalPa2.6–2.1
TPS Turku to win (incl. OT and shootout)60%
KalPa to win (incl. OT and shootout)40%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)36%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)64%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap TPS Turku
  • TPS Turku goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

TPS Turku

  • 30.10Pelicans2:1
  • 28.10away · Kiekko-Espoo4:5 OT
  • 24.10Lukko1:3
  • 23.10away · Lukko1:4
  • 20.10Ilves4:3

KalPa

  • 31.10away · Ilves0:1
  • 30.10Jokerit4:1
  • 27.10Vaasan Sport5:2
  • 24.10away · Karpat5:1
  • 23.10away · Karpat2:5

Head to head

  • 03.02.2026KalPa — TPS Turku7:3
  • 27.01.2026TPS Turku — KalPa3:2 OT
  • 10.10.2025KalPa — TPS Turku3:4 SO
  • 20.09.2025TPS Turku — KalPa0:3
  • 12.03.2025KalPa — TPS Turku1:0

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKiekko-Espoo20823761–49+1231
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTPS Turku19912753–48+531
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsTappara19723751–46+528
11, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsIFK Helsinki19714753–56-327
12, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKalPa18801946–41+525
13, Relegation play-offPelicans17711840–38+224

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →