Liga ACB (Spanish basketball league) · Saturday, 14 November, 20:00 (UTC+3)

Breogan — San Pablo Burgos

Model prediction for 14 November

Breogan65%

San Pablo Burgos35%

Model estimate at 23:02 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Breogan are clear favourites: 65% against 35% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 101:96 — 197 points in total.

Over 195.5 points (incl. overtime) — 51%.

Why

Team strength against the league average: Breogan −0.3, San Pablo Burgos −1.3 points in regulation.

Facts

League table: Breogan — No. 5, 4–2; San Pablo Burgos — No. 13, 2–4.
Last 4 meetings: Breogan 4 wins, San Pablo Burgos 0.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Breogan — San Pablo Burgos		100.6–96.1
Total over 195.5 (incl. OT)		51%
Total under 195.5 (incl. OT)		49%

219 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All handicaps
All totals
Breogan points
San Pablo Burgos points
Regulation 1X2
Offence and defence strength

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Form

Breogan

01.11away · Obradoiro CAB110:90
25.10Unicaja90:103
17.10away · MoraBanc Andorra102:108
10.10Basquet Girona115:92
03.10away · Manresa101:95

San Pablo Burgos

01.11away · Real Madrid79:90
28.10Rigas Zelli71:79
24.10away · Manresa99:81
21.10away · Tortona79:89
17.10Obradoiro CAB72:79

Head to head

19.04.2026San Pablo Burgos — Breogan94:99
22.11.2025Breogan — San Pablo Burgos105:78
03.04.2022Breogan — San Pablo Burgos105:96
23.09.2021San Pablo Burgos — Breogan62:87

Full record: 4 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	L	PCT	GB
4, Playoffs	Tenerife	6	4	2	.667	2
5, Playoffs	Breogan	6	4	2	.667	2
6, Playoffs	Bilbao	6	4	2	.667	2
12	Murcia	6	3	3	.500	3
13	San Pablo Burgos	6	2	4	.333	4
14	Joventut Badalona	6	2	4	.333	4

Season 2026/27 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

Liga ACB on the same day

21:30
MoraBanc AndorraTenerifepreliminary
2773
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: —180.1
23:00
Joventut BadalonaBasket Zaragozapreliminary
7030
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —178.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 65% will not happen in roughly 35 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →