NBA (National Basketball Association) · Sunday, 15 November, (UTC+3)
Miami Heat — Detroit Pistons
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 15 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Detroit Pistons are clear favourites: 64% against 36% for the opponent.
The model expects a score around 113:117 — 230 points in total.
Over 229.5 points (incl. overtime) — 51%.
Why
- Detroit Pistons without Jalen Duren: that costs the team about 5.3 points a game.
- Miami Heat play the second night of a back-to-back: in NBA history that is worth about 1.7 points of margin.
Facts
- League table: Miami Heat — No. 21, 2–5; Detroit Pistons — No. 3, 6–1.
- Detroit Pistons: 3 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Miami Heat 2 wins, Detroit Pistons 3.
Probabilities
| Expected points (incl. overtime): Miami Heat — Detroit Pistons | 112.7–117.5 | |
| Total over 229.5 (incl. OT) | 51% | |
| Total under 229.5 (incl. OT) | 49% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, who may miss the game, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Miami Heat points
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Form
- 03.11away · Los Angeles Lakers117:138
- 31.10Indiana Pacers145:125
- 29.10away · Atlanta Hawks129:117
- 27.10Dallas Mavericks109:113
- 25.10away · Charlotte Hornets110:115
- 03.11away · Charlotte Hornets124:91
- 31.10away · Brooklyn Nets110:94
- 29.10Charlotte Hornets97:89
- 28.10away · New York Knicks97:111
- 26.10away · Philadelphia 76ers106:93
Head to head
- 24.10.2026Miami Heat — Detroit Pistons111:128
- 09.03.2026Miami Heat — Detroit Pistons121:110
- 02.01.2026Detroit Pistons — Miami Heat112:118
- 30.11.2025Miami Heat — Detroit Pistons135:138
- 20.03.2025Miami Heat — Detroit Pistons113:116
Table
Eastern Conference
| # | Team | W | L | PCT | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Playoffs: top 6 in each conference | Philadelphia 76ers | 7 | 1 | .875 | — |
| 2, Playoffs: top 6 in each conference | Detroit Pistons | 6 | 1 | .857 | 0.5 |
| 3, Playoffs: top 6 in each conference | Boston Celtics | 5 | 2 | .714 | 1.5 |
| 9, Play-in: 7th to 10th in the conference | Charlotte Hornets | 3 | 5 | .375 | 4 |
| 10, Play-in: 7th to 10th in the conference | Miami Heat | 2 | 5 | .286 | 4.5 |
| 11 | Orlando Magic | 2 | 5 | .286 | 4.5 |
NBA on the same day
- New Orleans PelicansDenver Nuggetspreliminary39612The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: —234.8
- Cleveland CavaliersDallas Maverickspreliminary62381The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —228.4
- Memphis GrizzliesBrooklyn Netspreliminary70301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —225.5
- Minnesota TimberwolvesChicago Bullspreliminary83171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —234.4
- Philadelphia 76ersIndiana Pacerspreliminary73271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —225.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 64% will not happen in roughly 36 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →