NBA (National Basketball Association) · Monday, 23 November, (UTC+3)
Miami Heat — Oklahoma City Thunder
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 23 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Oklahoma City Thunder are slightly stronger: 55% against 45%.
The model expects a score around 114:116 — 230 points in total.
Over 229.5 points (incl. overtime) — 51%.
Why
- Oklahoma City Thunder without Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace: that costs the team about 9.7 points a game.
- Pace: Miami Heat 104.0, Oklahoma City Thunder 99.8 possessions per 48 minutes.
Facts
- League table: Miami Heat — No. 21, 2–5; Oklahoma City Thunder — No. 7, 5–2.
- Last 5 meetings: Miami Heat 1 win, Oklahoma City Thunder 4.
Probabilities
| Expected points (incl. overtime): Miami Heat — Oklahoma City Thunder | 114.3–115.9 | |
| Total over 229.5 (incl. OT) | 51% | |
| Total under 229.5 (incl. OT) | 49% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, who may miss the game, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Miami Heat points
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- Regulation 1X2
- Who may miss the game
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Form
- 03.11away · Los Angeles Lakers117:138
- 31.10Indiana Pacers145:125
- 29.10away · Atlanta Hawks129:117
- 27.10Dallas Mavericks109:113
- 25.10away · Charlotte Hornets110:115
- 03.11away · Cleveland Cavaliers117:112
- 01.11away · Houston Rockets98:119
- 29.10away · Dallas Mavericks96:120
- 27.10Phoenix Suns125:114
- 26.10Los Angeles Clippers108:101
Head to head
- 18.01.2026Miami Heat — Oklahoma City Thunder122:120
- 12.01.2026Oklahoma City Thunder — Miami Heat124:112
- 13.02.2025Oklahoma City Thunder — Miami Heat115:101
- 21.12.2024Miami Heat — Oklahoma City Thunder97:104
- 09.03.2024Oklahoma City Thunder — Miami Heat107:100
Table
Eastern Conference
| # | Team | W | L | PCT | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9, Play-in: 7th to 10th in the conference | Charlotte Hornets | 3 | 5 | .375 | 4 |
| 10, Play-in: 7th to 10th in the conference | Miami Heat | 2 | 5 | .286 | 4.5 |
| 11 | Orlando Magic | 2 | 5 | .286 | 4.5 |
Western Conference
| # | Team | W | L | PCT | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Playoffs: top 6 in each conference | Los Angeles Lakers | 6 | 2 | .750 | 1 |
| 5, Playoffs: top 6 in each conference | Oklahoma City Thunder | 5 | 2 | .714 | 1.5 |
| 6, Playoffs: top 6 in each conference | San Antonio Spurs | 5 | 2 | .714 | 1.5 |
NBA on the same day
- Chicago BullsDenver Nuggetspreliminary36642The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: —239.8
- Utah JazzDallas Maverickspreliminary43572The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: —229.7
- Washington WizardsOrlando Magicpreliminary46542The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: —224.2
- New York KnicksIndiana Pacerspreliminary69311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —222.6
- Golden State WarriorsBoston Celticspreliminary40602The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: —221.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →