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NBB (Novo Basquete Brasil) · Friday, 20 November, (UTC+3)

Pato — Corinthians Paulista

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Model prediction for 20 November

Pato22%
Corinthians Paulista78%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Corinthians Paulista are clear favourites: 78% against 22% for the opponent.

The model expects a score around 74:84 — 158 points in total.

Over 157.5 points (incl. overtime) — 50%.

Why

  • Team strength against the league average: Pato −7.3, Corinthians Paulista +5.6 points in regulation.

Facts

  • League table: Pato — No. 16, 1–3; Corinthians Paulista — No. 13, 1–2.
  • Last 5 meetings: Pato 2 wins, Corinthians Paulista 3.

Probabilities

Expected points (incl. overtime): Pato — Corinthians Paulista74.1–83.8
Total over 157.5 (incl. OT)50%
Total under 157.5 (incl. OT)50%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the regulation 1X2, the teams’ offence and defence, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All handicaps
  • All totals
  • Pato points
  • Corinthians Paulista points
  • Regulation 1X2
  • Offence and defence strength
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Form

Pato

  • 30.10away · Cruzeiro68:76
  • 28.10away · Minas65:86
  • 25.10Botafogo89:88
  • 22.10Paulistano74:80
  • 18.04away · Paulistano71:92

Corinthians Paulista

  • 27.10Franca78:48
  • 23.10away · Brasilia92:104
  • 17.10away · Mogi73:84
  • 27.05away · Pinheiros76:88
  • 24.05Pinheiros81:82

Head to head

  • 08.03.2026Pato — Corinthians Paulista79:89
  • 20.11.2025Corinthians Paulista — Pato87:68
  • 29.12.2024Pato — Corinthians Paulista76:85
  • 15.10.2024Corinthians Paulista — Pato86:89
  • 29.03.2024Pato — Corinthians Paulista100:87

Full record: 16 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWLPCTGB
12, PlayoffsBotafogo523.4003
13, PlayoffsCorinthians Paulista312.3333
14, PlayoffsOsasco312.3333
15, PlayoffsSao Jose413.2503.5
16, PlayoffsPato413.2503.5
17Caxias do Sul505.0005

Season 2026/27 · by win percentage, ties by head-to-head record, then the points difference in those games and overall

Full table

NBB on the same day

  • UnifacisaFlamengopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —161.2
  • OsascoMinaspreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: —166.7
  • PinheirosCruzeiropreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: —157.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 78% will not happen in roughly 22 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →