Prediction accuracy: club football
What is checked: the result: home win, draw or away win. An honest probability means outcomes at 70% happen about 70% of the time.
Check on history
The model learnt only from the matches before each round and estimated the next one as if it had not been played. A league enters the check once it has at least 50 matches played, as in the live predictions. That is how 48,148 matches from 27 January 2023 to 12 October 2026 were checked.
| Model estimate | Estimates | Average | Happened |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10% | 3,053 | 7.0% | 6.8% |
| 10–20% | 15,507 | 16.0% | 15.9% |
| 20–30% | 57,923 | 26.2% | 26.1% |
| 30–40% | 30,190 | 34.0% | 33.9% |
| 40–50% | 18,307 | 44.7% | 44.8% |
| 50–60% | 11,085 | 54.4% | 54.5% |
| 60–70% | 5,235 | 64.4% | 65.0% |
| 70–80% | 2,209 | 74.2% | 75.2% |
| 80–90% | 838 | 84.1% | 85.6% |
| 90–100% | 97 | 92.5% | 91.8% |
How to read probabilities and calibration →
Only the model's favourite
| Confidence from | Share of matches | Estimate | Came true |
|---|---|---|---|
| 40% | 78% | 53.0% | 53.3% |
| 50% | 40% | 60.8% | 61.2% |
| 60% | 17% | 69.3% | 70.1% |
| 70% | 7% | 77.4% | 78.5% |
Overall the model's most likely outcome came true in 50% of matches, with the favourite estimated at 50% on average. When the two are close, the model neither overstates nor understates its confidence; and even the most likely outcome coming true only about half the time is normal where a draw is possible.
By competition
«Honest»: the gap between the favourite’s estimate and how often it won is within the random spread for that many matches.
| Competition | Matches | Favourite came true | Favourite’s estimate | Probabilities |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLS | 1,948 | 47.5% | 46.9% | honest |
| Championship | 1,776 | 46.5% | 47.7% | honest |
| Liga Profesional | 1,700 | 43.8% | 46.4% | favourite overrated |
| Colombian Primera A | 1,610 | 48.2% | 48.6% | honest |
| Segunda Division | 1,503 | 46.4% | 46.6% | honest |
| Brasileirao | 1,438 | 49.7% | 49.3% | honest |
| Brasileirao Serie B | 1,410 | 47.4% | 47.2% | honest |
| Nigeria NPFL | 1,353 | 63.3% | 52.7% | favourite underrated |
| J1 League | 1,302 | 45.9% | 45.2% | honest |
| Serie B | 1,228 | 42.3% | 45.9% | favourite overrated |
| La Liga | 1,218 | 53.7% | 51.9% | honest |
| Premier League | 1,200 | 52.8% | 54.6% | honest |
| Serie A | 1,200 | 53.0% | 50.9% | honest |
| Peruvian Liga 1 | 1,170 | 53.3% | 53.1% | honest |
| Uruguayan Primera | 1,098 | 46.6% | 48.4% | honest |
| Super Lig | 1,089 | 53.1% | 52.1% | honest |
| Liga MX | 1,038 | 50.6% | 49.4% | honest |
| Ligue 2 | 1,011 | 43.7% | 45.6% | honest |
| Belgian Pro League | 1,009 | 52.1% | 51.7% | honest |
| Ekstraklasa | 1,006 | 44.7% | 49.2% | favourite overrated |
| LigaPro Serie A | 995 | 49.4% | 49.6% | honest |
| Primeira Liga | 989 | 55.3% | 54.9% | honest |
| 2. Bundesliga | 981 | 47.2% | 46.7% | honest |
| Ligue 1 | 972 | 52.9% | 52.5% | honest |
| Bundesliga | 962 | 52.0% | 53.8% | honest |
| Paraguayan Primera | 953 | 44.2% | 47.7% | favourite overrated |
| Eredivisie | 938 | 53.9% | 53.8% | honest |
| Saudi Pro League | 934 | 56.0% | 53.8% | honest |
| Allsvenskan | 904 | 51.4% | 48.9% | honest |
| Ghana Premier League | 897 | 57.3% | 50.4% | favourite underrated |
| Eliteserien | 895 | 54.8% | 52.2% | honest |
| Chilean Primera | 855 | 48.8% | 47.7% | honest |
| Egyptian Premier League | 855 | 44.7% | 47.5% | honest |
| K League 1 | 810 | 42.1% | 43.9% | honest |
| Russian Premier League | 800 | 53.3% | 53.6% | honest |
| Ukrainian Premier League | 727 | 51.4% | 51.7% | honest |
| Tanzania Premier League | 719 | 56.5% | 54.6% | honest |
| Greek Super League | 698 | 53.3% | 52.9% | honest |
| SA Premiership | 693 | 48.2% | 49.2% | honest |
| Swiss Super League | 692 | 48.8% | 46.8% | honest |
| Botola Pro | 688 | 46.5% | 49.5% | honest |
| Scottish Premiership | 682 | 54.0% | 53.0% | honest |
| Kazakhstan Premier League | 676 | 50.7% | 50.5% | honest |
| Belarusian Premier League | 671 | 50.5% | 51.7% | honest |
| Danish Superliga | 639 | 51.6% | 49.4% | honest |
| Austrian Bundesliga | 579 | 49.0% | 48.0% | honest |
| A-League | 508 | 43.3% | 47.1% | honest |
| Uzbekistan Super League | 129 | 55.8% | 50.3% | honest |
Since launch
We store the last estimate before each match and never change it afterwards. Since 2 October 2026 the most likely outcome came true in 258 of 497 matches with an expected share of 49%.
| Competition | Matches | Came true | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liga Profesional | 29 | 12 | 45% |
| Segunda Division | 22 | 11 | 45% |
| Brasileirao | 22 | 14 | 52% |
| Brasileirao Serie B | 20 | 11 | 50% |
| Championship | 20 | 10 | 47% |
| MLS | 16 | 10 | 46% |
| Colombian Primera A | 15 | 5 | 46% |
| Paraguayan Primera | 11 | 4 | 54% |
| Nigeria NPFL | 11 | 7 | 58% |
| Botola Pro | 11 | 3 | 44% |
| Uruguayan Primera | 10 | 4 | 50% |
| Tanzania Premier League | 10 | 3 | 44% |
| J1 League | 10 | 4 | 43% |
| Ekstraklasa | 10 | 7 | 45% |
| Serie B | 10 | 3 | 40% |
| Premier League | 10 | 7 | 47% |
| Serie A | 10 | 6 | 53% |
| Egyptian Premier League | 10 | 7 | 42% |
| Peruvian Liga 1 | 9 | 2 | 51% |
| 2. Bundesliga | 9 | 4 | 45% |
| Super Lig | 9 | 5 | 53% |
| Primeira Liga | 9 | 8 | 51% |
| Ligue 2 | 9 | 5 | 43% |
| Eredivisie | 9 | 3 | 54% |
| Bundesliga | 9 | 5 | 58% |
| Ligue 1 | 9 | 7 | 58% |
| Belgian Pro League | 9 | 3 | 49% |
| La Liga | 9 | 6 | 51% |
| Liga MX | 9 | 2 | 44% |
| Ghana Premier League | 9 | 9 | 54% |
| Champions League | 9 | 5 | 52% |
| Uzbekistan Super League | 8 | 5 | 55% |
| Saudi Pro League | 8 | 5 | 56% |
| Belarusian Premier League | 8 | 6 | 48% |
| Russian Premier League | 8 | 4 | 44% |
| Eliteserien | 8 | 4 | 51% |
| Allsvenskan | 8 | 4 | 52% |
| LigaPro Serie A | 8 | 5 | 48% |
| Kazakhstan Premier League | 8 | 3 | 52% |
| Ukrainian Premier League | 7 | 5 | 53% |
| Greek Super League | 7 | 4 | 58% |
| Chilean Primera | 7 | 3 | 54% |
| K League 1 | 6 | 2 | 43% |
| Danish Superliga | 6 | 3 | 50% |
| Scottish Premiership | 6 | 3 | 56% |
| Austrian Bundesliga | 6 | 3 | 47% |
| Swiss Super League | 6 | 4 | 46% |
| SA Premiership | 4 | 2 | 60% |
| Russian Cup | 3 | 1 | 60% |
| Copa Sudamericana | 1 | 0 | 54% |
Latest 12 matches
- Boca JuniorsVasco da Gama14 October · Copa Sudamericana5426191The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.4
- BucaramangaÁguilas Doradas14 October · Colombian Primera A4629251The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.6
- Athletic Club MGLondrina14 October · Brasileirao Serie B4827241The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.6
- FUS RabatRaja Casablanca13 October · Botola Pro2532432The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:1.1.9
- VikingBayern München13 October · Champions League1219692The most likely outcome did not happen: 23:3Final score 3:3. Model's score: 0:3.3.1
- GalatasarayBarcelona13 October · Champions League2425512The most likely outcome came true: 21:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 0:2.2.8
- VillarrealNapoli13 October · Champions League4027341The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
- RB LeipzigPSV Eindhoven13 October · Champions League3927351The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
- Atlético MadridManchester United13 October · Champions League5125241The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
- ArsenalLille13 October · Champions League801471The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 3:0, exactly right.3.4
- InterClub Brugge13 October · Champions League6222171The most likely outcome did not happen: 13:4Final score 3:4. Model's score: 3:1.3.0
- Stoke CityMiddlesbrough13 October · Championship2128512The most likely outcome came true: 22:3Final score 2:3. Model's score: 0:1.2.8