EFL Championship, round 10 · Tuesday, 13 October, MSK · bet365 Stadium
Stoke City — Middlesbrough
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 13 October
In play · estimate from before kick-off
In short
Middlesbrough are clear favourites: 51% against 21% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Middlesbrough are about 0.9 goals per match stronger.
- Stoke City: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Stoke City — Middlesbrough What is xG? | 1.1–1.7 | |
| Stoke City not to lose | 49% | |
| Middlesbrough not to lose | 79% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Stoke City
- Stoke City goals
- Middlesbrough goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10away · Bolton Wanderers2:1
- 19.09Sheffield United2:1
- 12.09away · Watford2:1
- 08.09away · Cardiff City1:1
- 05.09Charlton Athletic4:0
- 10.10Wolverhampton Wanderers1:0
- 19.09away · Birmingham City2:2
- 15.09Millwall2:2
- 12.09Norwich City4:3
- 08.09away · Crystal Palace0:3
Head to head
- 21.01.2026Stoke City — Middlesbrough1:2
- 30.09.2025Middlesbrough — Stoke City0:0
- 25.02.2025Stoke City — Middlesbrough1:3
- 28.09.2024Middlesbrough — Stoke City2:0
- 27.08.2024Middlesbrough — Stoke City0:5
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion | Swansea City | 9 | 6 | +8 | 20 |
| 2, Promotion | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | +5 | 18 |
| 3, Promotion play-offs | Southampton | 9 | 5 | +10 | 17 |
| 4, Promotion play-offs | West Ham United | 9 | 4 | +11 | 16 |
| 5, Promotion play-offs | Stoke City | 9 | 5 | +2 | 16 |
| 6, Promotion play-offs | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 8 | 4 | +4 | 14 |
Championship on the same day
- 4130301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.4
- 5826161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.4
- 4728261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- 4927241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- 6322151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
- 4330271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.3
- 6024161The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →