Nigeria NPFL, round 10 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Abia Warriors — Niger Tornadoes
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Abia Warriors are clear favourites: 59% against 15% for the opponent, draw 26%.
1.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.1).
Over 2.5 goals — 27%, both teams to score — 29%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Abia Warriors are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Abia Warriors — Niger Tornadoes What is xG? | 1.3–0.5 | |
| Abia Warriors not to lose | 85% | |
| Niger Tornadoes not to lose | 41% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 29% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 71% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 27% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 73% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Abia Warriors
- Abia Warriors goals
- Niger Tornadoes goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Rivers United FC0:0
- 04.10away · Enugu Rangers1:3
- 27.09Bendel Insurance3:0
- 23.09away · Barau0:2
- 20.09away · Sporting Lagos2:0
- 10.10away · Ranchers Bees0:0
- 04.10Kun Khalifat1:0
- 27.09away · Nasarawa United0:1
- 23.09Warri Wolves FC0:0
- 19.09away · Katsina United0:1
Head to head
- 23.03.2026Abia Warriors — Niger Tornadoes2:1
- 02.11.2025Niger Tornadoes — Abia Warriors1:2
- 07.05.2025Niger Tornadoes — Abia Warriors1:1
- 08.12.2024Abia Warriors — Niger Tornadoes2:1
- 25.02.2024Niger Tornadoes — Abia Warriors1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Warri Wolves FC | 8 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 14 | Niger Tornadoes | 8 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 15 | Abia Warriors | 8 | 2 | -3 | 9 |
| 16 | Ranchers Bees | 8 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
Nigeria NPFL on the same day
- BarauKwara Unitedpreliminary6523121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.0
- Bendel InsuranceRivers United FCpreliminary4928231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.1
- Ikorodu CityShooting Starspreliminary7119101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
- Katsina UnitedPlateau Unitedpreliminary5327201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.1
- Kun KhalifatInter Lagospreliminary761681The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Nasarawa UnitedEnyimbapreliminary6223141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.3
- Ranchers BeesDoma Unitedpreliminary6621131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
- Warri Wolves FCKano Pillarspreliminary5527181The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 59% will not happen in roughly 41 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →