Segunda Division, round 9 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube
AD Ceuta FC — Sabadell
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
1:2Came true
In short
Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Sabadell to win (47%), came true.
Sabadell are clear favourites: 47% against 25% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 52%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Sabadell are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: AD Ceuta FC — Sabadell What is xG? | 1.0–1.5 | |
| AD Ceuta FC not to lose | 53% | |
| Sabadell not to lose | 75% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 47% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 53% |
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- Handicap AD Ceuta FC
- AD Ceuta FC goals
- Sabadell goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 04.10away · Castellón1:1
- 26.09Real Sociedad B3:1
- 20.09Real Valladolid1:1
- 11.09away · Burgos CF1:3
- 05.09Celta Fortuna0:2
- 04.10FC Andorra0:0
- 26.09away · Celta Fortuna1:1
- 20.09Real Oviedo3:1
- 13.09away · Mallorca0:2
- 07.09Córdoba3:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Promotion play-offs | Mallorca | 9 | 5 | +7 | 17 |
| 5, Promotion play-offs | Sabadell | 9 | 4 | +3 | 16 |
| 6, Promotion play-offs | Sporting Gijón | 9 | 5 | +1 | 16 |
| 20, Relegation | Cádiz | 9 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 21, Relegation | AD Ceuta FC | 9 | 1 | -12 | 5 |
| 22, Relegation | Albacete | 9 | 0 | -15 | 1 |
Next matches
- AD Ceuta FCReal Oviedo18 October · Segunda Division3229382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.6
- Burgos CFSabadell18 October · Segunda Division363232XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.1
Segunda Division on the same day
- 343036XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X2:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:2.2.8
- 4228301The most likely outcome came true: 14:1Final score 4:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →