Segunda Division: 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 363 matches to play · updated 13 October 2026
The model played the remaining 363 matches 10,000 times. Castellón have the best chance to win the title: 27%, Almería 27%. Closest to the drop: AD Ceuta FC (72%).
Race for the title
| Date | Castellón | Eibar | Almería | FC Andorra | Las Palmas | Sporting Gijón |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 August | 14% | 4% | 14% | 16% | 9% | 9% |
| 24 August | 10% | 5% | 15% | 23% | 12% | 5% |
| 31 August | 14% | 8% | 11% | 9% | 5% | 10% |
| 7 September | 34% | 13% | 9% | 6% | 2% | 5% |
| 14 September | 44% | 12% | 9% | 2% | 3% | 2% |
| 21 September | 57% | 12% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| 28 September | 53% | 17% | 12% | 1% | — | 1% |
| 5 October | 40% | 27% | 19% | 1% | <1% | 1% |
| 12 October | 25% | 32% | 26% | 2% | <1% | 2% |
| 13 October | 27% | 25% | 27% | 2% | <1% | 2% |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest. Upper zones include the ones above: “Up or play-offs” counts “Promotion” too.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | Title | Promotion | Up or play-offs | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellón | 20 (9) | 78 | 12 | 27%▼13 | 48%▼14 | 85%▼7 | <1% |
| 2 | Almería | 21 (9) | 77 | 10 | 27%▲8 | 47%▲8 | 83%▲3 | <1% |
| 3 | Eibar | 21 (9) | 77 | 19 | 25%▼2 | 45%▼6 | 84%▼5 | <1% |
| 4 | Sabadell | 16 (9) | 65 | 21 | 3%▲1 | 10%▲4 | 44%▲7 | 2%▼2 |
| 5 | Granada | 14 (9) | 64 | 22 | 4%▲2 | 10%▲5 | 41%▲12 | 3%▼5 |
| 6 | Mallorca | 17 (9) | 63 | 6 | 2%▲1 | 6%▲2 | 35%▲6 | 3%▼3 |
| 7 | Sporting Gijón | 16 (9) | 63 | 7 | 2%▲1 | 6%▲2 | 34%▲6 | 3%▼4 |
| 8 | Real Oviedo | 14 (9) | 62 | 17 | 2%▲1 | 6%▲2 | 32%▲7 | 4%▼5 |
| 9 | Burgos CF | 14 (9) | 62 | 5 | 2%▼1 | 5%▼5 | 29%▼18 | 4%▲2 |
| 10 | FC Andorra | 10 (9) | 61 | 18 | 2%▲1 | 5%▲2 | 30%▲8 | 6%▼7 |
| 11 | Real Valladolid | 12 (9) | 59 | 8 | 1%▲1 | 3%▲2 | 23%▲12 | 8%▼11 |
| 12 | Girona | 15 (9) | 57 | 2 | 1% | 2%▼1 | 18%▼5 | 10% |
| 13 | Eldense | 11 (9) | 56 | 13 | 1%▲1 | 2%▲1 | 15%▲2 | 13%▼5 |
| 14 | Tenerife | 12 (9) | 53 | 11 | <1%▼1 | 1%▼1 | 9%▼10 | 19%▲7 |
| 15 | Las Palmas | 11 (9) | 53 | 4 | <1% | 1%▼1 | 9%▼7 | 20%▲4 |
| 16 | Celta Fortuna | 11 (9) | 52 | 14 | <1% | 1%▲1 | 9%▲2 | 23%▼8 |
| 17 | Córdoba | 9 (9) | 51 | 15 | <1% | 1% | 7%▼1 | 28%▼5 |
| 18 | Leganés | 11 (9) | 50 | 20 | <1% | <1%▼1 | 4%▼4 | 31%▲4 |
| 19 | Real Sociedad B | 8 (9) | 48 | 9 | <1% | <1%▼1 | 3%▼4 | 36%▲7 |
| 20 | Cádiz | 7 (9) | 46 | 1 | <1% | <1% | 2%▼3 | 43%▲9 |
| 21 | AD Ceuta FC | 5 (9) | 39 | 3 | <1% | <1% | 1% | 72%▲6 |
| 22 | Albacete | 1 (9) | 39 | 16 | <1% | <1% | <1%▼2 | 71%▲16 |
Chance of every place
Show the 22 × 22 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castellón | 27 | 20 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||
| Almería | 27 | 21 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| Eibar | 25 | 20 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||
| Sabadell | 3 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Granada | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Mallorca | 2 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Sporting Gijón | 2 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Real Oviedo | 2 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Burgos CF | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| FC Andorra | 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Real Valladolid | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Girona | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| Eldense | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Tenerife | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| Las Palmas | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 2 | |
| Celta Fortuna | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 3 | |
| Córdoba | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 5 | |
| Leganés | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 5 | |||
| Real Sociedad B | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 8 | |||
| Cádiz | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 9 | ||||
| AD Ceuta FC | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 20 | 30 | |||||||
| Albacete | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 19 | 31 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.
Segunda Division: matches and table →
Segunda Division: power rankings →