Segunda Division, round 12 · Sunday, 1 November, MSK
AD Ceuta FC — Sporting Gijón
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 1 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: AD Ceuta FC 33%, Sporting Gijón 38%, draw 29%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Sporting Gijón are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: AD Ceuta FC — No. 21, 5 pts; Sporting Gijón — No. 6, 16 pts. A gap of 11 pts.
- Last 2 meetings: AD Ceuta FC 1 win, Sporting Gijón 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: AD Ceuta FC — Sporting Gijón What is xG? | 1.2–1.4 | |
| AD Ceuta FC not to lose | 62% | |
| Sporting Gijón not to lose | 67% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 48% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 52% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap AD Ceuta FC
- AD Ceuta FC goals
- Sporting Gijón goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10Sabadell1:2
- 04.10away · Castellón1:1
- 26.09Real Sociedad B3:1
- 20.09Real Valladolid1:1
- 11.09away · Burgos CF1:3
- 11.10away · Cádiz1:0
- 04.10Celta Fortuna3:2
- 27.09away · Real Oviedo0:2
- 19.09away · FC Andorra3:1
- 13.09Eldense0:1
Head to head
- 03.05.2026Sporting Gijón — AD Ceuta FC1:2
- 23.08.2025AD Ceuta FC — Sporting Gijón0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5, Promotion play-offs | Sabadell | 9 | 4 | +3 | 16 |
| 6, Promotion play-offs | Sporting Gijón | 9 | 5 | +1 | 16 |
| 7 | Girona | 9 | 4 | +6 | 15 |
| 20, Relegation | Cádiz | 9 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 21, Relegation | AD Ceuta FC | 9 | 1 | -12 | 5 |
| 22, Relegation | Albacete | 9 | 0 | -15 | 1 |
Segunda Division on the same day
- EldenseGranadapreliminary4329281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- Burgos CFCastellónpreliminary2930412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.6
- TenerifeFC Andorrapreliminary343036XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →