Eredivisie (Netherlands), round 11 · Saturday, 31 October, MSK
Ajax — AZ Alkmaar
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 31 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Ajax are slightly stronger: 44% against 28%, draw 28%.
3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 65%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Ajax are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Ajax — AZ Alkmaar What is xG? | 1.7–1.4 | |
| Ajax not to lose | 72% | |
| AZ Alkmaar not to lose | 56% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 65% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 35% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 61% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 39% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Ajax
- Ajax goals
- AZ Alkmaar goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 10.10NEC Nijmegen1:1
- 19.09Excelsior2:2
- 15.09Willem II5:1
- 12.09away · Fortuna Sittard5:1
- 05.09PSV Eindhoven1:3
- 10.10away · Feyenoord0:2
- 20.09Telstar1:0
- 16.09away · Sunderland0:1
- 11.09Willem II1:1
- 06.09away · SC Heerenveen3:2
Head to head
- 08.02.2026AZ Alkmaar — Ajax1:1
- 18.10.2025Ajax — AZ Alkmaar0:2
- 16.03.2025Ajax — AZ Alkmaar2:2
- 08.12.2024AZ Alkmaar — Ajax2:1
- 25.02.2024AZ Alkmaar — Ajax2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Champions League qualifying | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | +16 | 19 |
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 | FC Twente | 8 | 5 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | +12 | 15 |
| 6 | FC Groningen | 8 | 4 | +6 | 14 |
Eredivisie on the same day
- FeyenoordFortuna Sittardpreliminary831151The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.7
- SC HeerenveenNEC Nijmegenpreliminary4228301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.3
- PSV EindhovenWillem IIpreliminary92621The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:04.6
- CambuurGo Ahead Eaglespreliminary3427392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 2:33.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →