Eredivisie (Netherlands), round 11 · Saturday, 31 October, MSK
SC Heerenveen — NEC Nijmegen
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 31 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
SC Heerenveen are clear favourites: 49% against 24% for the opponent, draw 27%.
3.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 65%, both teams to score — 68%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: SC Heerenveen — No. 10, 9 pts; NEC Nijmegen — No. 11, 9 pts.
- NEC Nijmegen: winless in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: SC Heerenveen 2 wins, NEC Nijmegen 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: SC Heerenveen — NEC Nijmegen What is xG? | 1.9–1.4 | |
| SC Heerenveen not to lose | 76% | |
| NEC Nijmegen not to lose | 51% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 68% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 32% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 65% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 35% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap SC Heerenveen
- SC Heerenveen goals
- NEC Nijmegen goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10away · PSV Eindhoven0:2
- 19.09away · Sparta Rotterdam4:0
- 13.09Telstar0:0
- 06.09AZ Alkmaar2:3
- 30.08away · Willem II2:2
- 10.10away · Ajax1:1
- 20.09Go Ahead Eagles1:1
- 17.09away · Juventus0:5
- 12.09away · Cambuur0:3
- 08.09Excelsior2:2
Head to head
- 22.03.2026NEC Nijmegen — SC Heerenveen2:2
- 21.09.2025SC Heerenveen — NEC Nijmegen3:2
- 27.04.2025SC Heerenveen — NEC Nijmegen1:0
- 19.10.2024NEC Nijmegen — SC Heerenveen3:0
- 10.03.2024NEC Nijmegen — SC Heerenveen2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 | SC Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | -8 | 8 |
Eredivisie on the same day
- FeyenoordFortuna Sittardpreliminary861041The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.7
- PSV EindhovenWillem IIpreliminary92621The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:04.5
- AjaxAZ Alkmaarpreliminary5127221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3
- CambuurGo Ahead Eaglespreliminary2626472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 2:33.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →