Saudi Pro League, round 8 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Kingdom Arena
Al Hilal — Al Ittihad
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
3:2Came true
In short
Final score 3:2: the model's most likely outcome, Al Hilal to win (76%), came true.
Al Hilal are clear favourites: 76% against 9% for the opponent, draw 15%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.8 in total, against a competition average of 3.0.
Over 2.5 goals — 74%, both teams to score — 63%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Al Hilal are about 1.6 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Al Ittihad: 3 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Al Hilal 3 wins, Al Ittihad 1, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Al Hilal — Al Ittihad What is xG? | 2.8–1.1 | |
| Al Hilal not to lose | 91% | |
| Al Ittihad not to lose | 24% | |
| No draw | 85% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 63% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 37% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 74% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 26% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Al Hilal
- Al Hilal goals
- Al Ittihad goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 12.09away · Al-Taawoun6:0
- 07.09Neom SC0:2
- 04.09away · Al Shabab2:0
- 01.09Al Ahli3:0
- 28.08away · Al Khaleej5:1
- 11.09away · Al-Faisaly3:1
- 08.09Al-Fayha2:1
- 05.09Al Nassr FC2:1
- 29.08away · Al Fateh FC0:0
- 24.08Al Hazem3:2
Head to head
- 21.02.2026Al Hilal — Al Ittihad1:1
- 24.10.2025Al Ittihad — Al Hilal0:2
- 22.02.2025Al Ittihad — Al Hilal4:1
- 21.09.2024Al Hilal — Al Ittihad3:1
- 01.03.2024Al Hilal — Al Ittihad3:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Hilal | 8 | 7 | +19 | 21 |
| 2 | Al Qadsiah | 8 | 6 | +13 | 19 |
| 3 | Al Nassr FC | 8 | 6 | +12 | 19 |
| 4 | Al Ittihad | 8 | 5 | +5 | 17 |
| 5 | Neom SC | 8 | 5 | +7 | 16 |
Next matches
- Al HilalAl Hazem19 October · Saudi Pro League90731The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:04.1
- Al-EttifaqAl Ittihad20 October · Saudi Pro League2628452The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:23.3
Saudi Pro League on the same day
- 2730432The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:1.2.7
- 4430261The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 76% will not happen in roughly 24 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →