Saudi Pro League, round 8 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Ar-Rass Stadium (Al Hazm Club Stadium)
Al Hazem — Neom SC
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In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Neom SC to win (43%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 43% fails in about 57 matches out of 100 on average.
Neom SC are slightly stronger: 43% against 27%, draw 30%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).
Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Neom SC are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Al Hazem — Neom SC What is xG? | 1.2–1.5 | |
| Al Hazem not to lose | 57% | |
| Neom SC not to lose | 73% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 51% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 49% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Al Hazem
- Al Hazem goals
- Neom SC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 11.09away · Al Ahli1:3
- 08.09Al-Taawoun1:0
- 05.09away · Al-Faisaly0:0
- 30.08Al Shabab1:1
- 24.08away · Al Ittihad2:3
- 13.09Al Fateh FC4:2
- 07.09away · Al Hilal2:0
- 03.09Al Khaleej3:0
- 28.08away · Al Riyadh0:1
- 24.08Al Qadsiah0:2
Head to head
- 28.04.2026Neom SC — Al Hazem1:1
- 04.01.2026Al Hazem — Neom SC1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Al Ittihad | 8 | 5 | +5 | 17 |
| 5 | Neom SC | 8 | 5 | +7 | 16 |
| 6 | Al Ahli | 8 | 5 | +10 | 15 |
| 9 | Al Diriyah | 8 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Al Hazem | 8 | 2 | -2 | 9 |
| 11 | Al Riyadh | 8 | 2 | -8 | 9 |
Next matches
- Al HazemAl Fateh FC15 October · Saudi Pro League4030301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- Neom SCAl-Ettifaq17 October · Saudi Pro League5227211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
Saudi Pro League on the same day
- 4430261The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
- 761591The most likely outcome came true: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 3:1.3.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →