Segunda Division, round 8 · Saturday, 3 October, MSK · Estadio Carlos Belmonte
Albacete — Eibar
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1:3Missed
In short
Final score 1:3: the model's most likely outcome, Albacete to win (37%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 37% fails in about 63 matches out of 100 on average.
Evenly matched: Albacete 37%, Eibar 35%, draw 28%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 48%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Albacete — Eibar What is xG? | 1.2–1.2 | |
| Albacete not to lose | 65% | |
| Eibar not to lose | 63% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 48% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 52% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 42% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 58% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Albacete
- Albacete goals
- Eibar goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 25.09away · Girona0:2
- 18.09Córdoba1:2
- 12.09away · Granada1:1
- 06.09away · Castellón0:2
- 29.08Real Oviedo0:1
- 27.09Las Palmas3:2
- 19.09away · Eldense2:1
- 14.09away · Celta Fortuna4:0
- 06.09Granada3:0
- 30.08away · FC Andorra1:0
Head to head
- 24.04.2026Albacete — Eibar0:3
- 08.11.2025Eibar — Albacete3:2
- 18.01.2025Eibar — Albacete1:1
- 09.09.2024Albacete — Eibar0:1
- 28.04.2024Albacete — Eibar2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion | Almería | 9 | 7 | +11 | 21 |
| 2, Promotion | Eibar | 9 | 7 | +9 | 21 |
| 3, Promotion play-offs | Castellón | 9 | 6 | +11 | 20 |
| 21, Relegation | AD Ceuta FC | 9 | 1 | -12 | 5 |
| 22, Relegation | Albacete | 9 | 0 | -15 | 1 |
Next matches
- Real ValladolidAlbacete12 October · Segunda Division5127221The most likely outcome came true: 15:0Final score 5:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.5
- Real OviedoEibar12 October · Segunda Division4428281The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.2
Segunda Division on the same day
- 5126231The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.4
- 3829331The most likely outcome came true: 14:0Final score 4:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →