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Segunda Division, round 8 · Saturday, 3 October, MSK · UD Almería Stadium

Almería — Burgos CF

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Model prediction and result

2:1Came true
Almería51%
Draw26%
Burgos CF23%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Almería to win (51%), came true.

Almería are clear favourites: 51% against 23% for the opponent, draw 26%.

2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 46%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Almería are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Almería — Burgos CF What is xG?1.5–0.9
Almería not to lose77%
Burgos CF not to lose49%
No draw74%
Both teams to score: yes46%
Both teams to score: no54%
Total over 2.543%
Total under 2.557%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Almería
  • Almería goals
  • Burgos CF goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

Almería

  • 27.09away · Mallorca1:0
  • 20.09Celta Fortuna2:0
  • 12.09away · Córdoba2:0
  • 06.09Cádiz3:2
  • 29.08away · Sabadell0:1

Burgos CF

  • 27.09Eldense1:0
  • 20.09away · Las Palmas2:1
  • 11.09AD Ceuta FC3:1
  • 06.09away · Real Oviedo0:0
  • 31.08Real Sociedad B2:2

Head to head

  • 09.05.2026Burgos CF — Almería0:0
  • 14.12.2025Almería — Burgos CF1:2
  • 21.03.2025Burgos CF — Almería3:1
  • 05.10.2024Almería — Burgos CF2:0
  • 30.04.2022Burgos CF — Almería0:2

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, PromotionAlmería970216–5+1121
2, PromotionEibar970219–10+921
7Girona943215–9+615
8Burgos CF942312–10+214
9Real Oviedo942311–9+214

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

  • AlmeríaLeganés11 October · Segunda Division
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:0. Model's score: 1:0.3.1
  • Burgos CFGranada12 October · Segunda Division
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.1

Segunda Division on the same day

  • AlbaceteEibar
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:3. Model's score: 1:0.2.4
  • CádizLeganés
    1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 4:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →