Segunda Division, round 8 · Saturday, 3 October, 19:30 MSK · JP Financial Estadio

Cádiz — Leganés

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Model prediction and result

4:0Came true

Cádiz38%

Draw29%

Leganés33%

Model estimate at 19:27 MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 4:0: the model's most likely outcome, Cádiz to win (38%), came true.

Evenly matched: Cádiz 38%, Leganés 33%, draw 29%.

The model expects few goals: 2.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.

Over 2.5 goals — 39%, both teams to score — 45%.

Why

By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Cádiz — Leganés What is xG?		1.2–1.1
Cádiz not to lose		67%
Leganés not to lose		62%
No draw		71%
Both teams to score: yes		45%
Both teams to score: no		55%
Total over 2.5		39%
Total under 2.5		61%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Cádiz
Cádiz goals
Leganés goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Form

Cádiz

26.09away · Tenerife1:1
19.09Girona1:2
12.09Las Palmas0:1
06.09away · Almería2:3
30.08Real Valladolid1:1

Leganés

28.09Castellón0:2
20.09Granada3:2
13.09away · Tenerife0:2
04.09away · Las Palmas0:0
29.08Eldense1:0

Head to head

24.05.2026Cádiz — Leganés3:0
22.08.2025Leganés — Cádiz1:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
15	Las Palmas	9	3	2	4	13–16	-3	11
16	Leganés	9	3	2	4	6–14	-8	11
17	FC Andorra	9	3	1	5	13–15	-2	10
19, Relegation	Real Sociedad B	9	2	2	5	12–17	-5	8
20, Relegation	Cádiz	9	1	4	4	11–11	0	7
21, Relegation	AD Ceuta FC	9	1	2	6	8–20	-12	5

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

17:15
AlmeríaLeganés11 October · Segunda Division
582418
1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:0. Model's score: 1:0.3.1
22:00
CádizSporting Gijón11 October · Segunda Division
372934
XThe most likely outcome did not happen: XFinal score 0:1. Model's score: 0:0.2.4

Segunda Division on the same day

15:00
AlbaceteEibar
372835
1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 1:3. Model's score: 1:0.2.4
17:15
AlmeríaBurgos CF
512623
1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.4

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →