Segunda Division, round 11 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK

Almería — Real Oviedo

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Model prediction for 24 October

Almería50%
Draw26%
Real Oviedo24%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Almería are clear favourites: 50% against 24% for the opponent, draw 26%.

2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 57%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Almería are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Almería — Real Oviedo What is xG?1.7–1.1
Almería not to lose76%
Real Oviedo not to lose50%
No draw74%
Both teams to score: yes57%
Both teams to score: no43%
Total over 2.553%
Total under 2.547%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Almería
  • Almería goals
  • Real Oviedo goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

Almería

  • 11.10Leganés3:0
  • 03.10Burgos CF2:1
  • 27.09away · Mallorca1:0
  • 20.09Celta Fortuna2:0
  • 12.09away · Córdoba2:0

Real Oviedo

  • 12.10Eibar3:1
  • 02.10away · Eldense1:4
  • 27.09Sporting Gijón2:0
  • 20.09away · Sabadell1:3
  • 13.09away · Real Valladolid3:0

Head to head

  • 11.06.2025Real Oviedo — Almería1:1
  • 07.06.2025Almería — Real Oviedo1:2
  • 01.02.2025Almería — Real Oviedo1:1
  • 13.10.2024Real Oviedo — Almería3:2
  • 29.01.2022Real Oviedo — Almería2:0

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
1, PromotionAlmería970216–5+1121
2, PromotionEibar970219–10+921
8Burgos CF942312–10+214
9Real Oviedo942311–9+214
10Granada942314–13+114

Season 2026/27

Full table

Segunda Division on the same day

  • CórdobaEibarpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
  • LeganésMallorcapreliminary
    XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.0
  • 1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
  • 1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →