Segunda Division, round 11 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Almería — Real Oviedo
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Almería are clear favourites: 50% against 24% for the opponent, draw 26%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Almería are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Almería — Real Oviedo What is xG? | 1.7–1.1 | |
| Almería not to lose | 76% | |
| Real Oviedo not to lose | 50% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Almería
- Almería goals
- Real Oviedo goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Leganés3:0
- 03.10Burgos CF2:1
- 27.09away · Mallorca1:0
- 20.09Celta Fortuna2:0
- 12.09away · Córdoba2:0
- 12.10Eibar3:1
- 02.10away · Eldense1:4
- 27.09Sporting Gijón2:0
- 20.09away · Sabadell1:3
- 13.09away · Real Valladolid3:0
Head to head
- 11.06.2025Real Oviedo — Almería1:1
- 07.06.2025Almería — Real Oviedo1:2
- 01.02.2025Almería — Real Oviedo1:1
- 13.10.2024Real Oviedo — Almería3:2
- 29.01.2022Real Oviedo — Almería2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion | Almería | 9 | 7 | +11 | 21 |
| 2, Promotion | Eibar | 9 | 7 | +9 | 21 |
| 8 | Burgos CF | 9 | 4 | +2 | 14 |
| 9 | Real Oviedo | 9 | 4 | +2 | 14 |
| 10 | Granada | 9 | 4 | +1 | 14 |
Segunda Division on the same day
- CórdobaEibarpreliminary4126321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- LeganésMallorcapreliminary353035XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:02.0
- GironaCelta Fortunapreliminary5026241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
- Las PalmasReal Sociedad Bpreliminary4828241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →