Colombian Primera A (Liga BetPlay) · Monday, 12 October, MSK · Estadio Olímpico Pascual Guerrero
América de Cali — Independiente Medellín
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In short
Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, América de Cali to win (51%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 51% fails in about 49 matches out of 100 on average.
América de Cali are clear favourites: 51% against 21% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 52%.
Why
- By the strength ratings América de Cali are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: América de Cali 1 win, Independiente Medellín 2, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: América de Cali — Independiente Medellín What is xG? | 1.6–1.0 | |
| América de Cali not to lose | 79% | |
| Independiente Medellín not to lose | 49% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 47% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 53% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap América de Cali
- América de Cali goals
- Independiente Medellín goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 05.10away · Llaneros FC2:1
- 24.09Águilas Doradas1:0
- 21.09away · Tolima1:1
- 15.09Deportivo Pasto0:1
- 04.09Alianza FC3:0
- 06.10Santa Fe0:1
- 30.09Millonarios2:2
- 27.09away · Junior FC0:2
- 23.09CD Jaguares2:1
- 18.09away · Bucaramanga2:2
Head to head
- 31.03.2026Independiente Medellín — América de Cali2:1
- 02.12.2025Independiente Medellín — América de Cali1:1
- 28.11.2025América de Cali — Independiente Medellín2:1
- 14.11.2025Independiente Medellín — América de Cali3:0
- 20.06.2025América de Cali — Independiente Medellín1:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Semi-final groups | América de Cali | 13 | 8 | +16 | 27 |
| 2, Semi-final groups | Deportivo Cali | 13 | 7 | +11 | 25 |
| 4, Semi-final groups | Atlético Nacional | 11 | 7 | +11 | 23 |
| 5, Semi-final groups | Independiente Medellín | 13 | 7 | +4 | 23 |
| 6, Semi-final groups | Santa Fe | 12 | 6 | +7 | 22 |
Next matches
- Independiente MedellínOnce Caldas18 October · Colombian Primera A5426201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- BucaramangaAmérica de Cali19 October · Colombian Primera A3931301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
Colombian Primera A on the same day
- 2228512The most likely outcome did not happen: 23:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 1:2.2.4
- 4130291The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 2:0.2.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →