Belarusian Premier League · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk — Dnepr Mogilev
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Dnepr Mogilev are slightly stronger: 43% against 34%, draw 24%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 50%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Arsenal Dzerzhinsk are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk — No. 12, 23 pts; Dnepr Mogilev — No. 16, 16 pts. A gap of 7 pts.
- Arsenal Dzerzhinsk: winless in 5; Dnepr Mogilev: winless in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 4 wins, Dnepr Mogilev 0, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk — Dnepr Mogilev What is xG? | 1.2–1.3 | |
| Arsenal Dzerzhinsk not to lose | 57% | |
| Dnepr Mogilev not to lose | 66% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 50% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 50% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 47% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 53% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
- Arsenal Dzerzhinsk goals
- Dnepr Mogilev goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10Dynamo Brest0:1
- 18.09away · ML Vitebsk1:5
- 12.09Baranovici0:0
- 07.09away · Isloch1:1
- 30.08Zhodino2:4
- 11.10Din. Minsk2:3
- 20.09away · Dynamo Brest2:4
- 13.09ML Vitebsk1:1
- 06.09away · Baranovici1:2
- 30.08Isloch0:0
Head to head
- 14.06.2026Dnepr Mogilev — Arsenal Dzerzhinsk0:1
- 11.08.2024Arsenal Dzerzhinsk — Dnepr Mogilev3:1
- 29.03.2024Dnepr Mogilev — Arsenal Dzerzhinsk0:0
- 06.11.2022Dnepr Mogilev — Arsenal Dzerzhinsk0:1
- 10.07.2022Arsenal Dzerzhinsk — Dnepr Mogilev1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Baranovici | 24 | 6 | -17 | 25 |
| 12 | Arsenal Dzerzhinsk | 24 | 5 | -18 | 23 |
| 13 | BATE | 24 | 4 | -12 | 21 |
| 15, Relegation | Naftan | 24 | 4 | -31 | 17 |
| 16, Relegation | Dnepr Mogilev | 24 | 2 | -17 | 16 |
Belarusian Premier League on the same day
- Slavia MozyrZhodinopreliminary3729341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
- NemanDynamo Brestpreliminary4327301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →