English Premier League, round 6 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Emirates Stadium
Arsenal — Leeds United
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2:1Came true
In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Arsenal to win (71%), came true.
Arsenal are clear favourites: 71% against 10% for the opponent, draw 19%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 47%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Arsenal are about 1.3 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Arsenal 5 wins, Leeds United 0.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Arsenal — Leeds United What is xG? | 2.0–0.7 | |
| Arsenal not to lose | 90% | |
| Leeds United not to lose | 29% | |
| No draw | 81% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 53% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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- Leeds United goals
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Form
- 19.09away · Brighton & Hove Albion0:3
- 15.09away · Ipswich Town4:2
- 12.09away · Sunderland2:0
- 09.09away · Napoli1:0
- 06.09Chelsea2:1
- 20.09Crystal Palace0:0
- 14.09Newcastle United4:1
- 09.09away · Chelsea3:6
- 05.09away · Brighton & Hove Albion1:1
- 30.08Brentford1:1
Head to head
- 31.01.2026Leeds United — Arsenal0:4
- 23.08.2025Arsenal — Leeds United5:0
- 01.04.2023Arsenal — Leeds United4:1
- 16.10.2022Leeds United — Arsenal0:1
- 08.05.2022Arsenal — Leeds United2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | Manchester City | 6 | 6 | +11 | 18 |
| 2, Champions League | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | +5 | 15 |
| 3, Champions League | Brighton & Hove Albion | 6 | 4 | +13 | 13 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds United | 6 | 2 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | +2 | 9 |
Next matches
- ArsenalLille13 October · Champions League801471The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 3:0, exactly right.3.4
- Leeds UnitedManchester United18 October · Premier League323038XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 2:23.0
Premier League on the same day
- 352935XThe most likely outcome came true: X2:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 1:1.2.9
- 4627281The most likely outcome came true: 15:1Final score 5:1. Model's score: 2:1.3.3
- 2228502The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
- 2229492The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
- 6124151The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:0.3.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 71% will not happen in roughly 29 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →