Peruvian Liga 1 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Estadio Municipal Unión de Tarma
Asociación Deportiva Tarma — FC Cajamarca
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In short
Final score 0:0: the model's most likely outcome, Asociación Deportiva Tarma to win (46%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 46% fails in about 54 matches out of 100 on average.
Asociación Deportiva Tarma are slightly stronger: 46% against 28%, draw 26%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.3 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 64%, both teams to score — 66%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Asociación Deportiva Tarma — FC Cajamarca What is xG? | 1.9–1.4 | |
| Asociación Deportiva Tarma not to lose | 72% | |
| FC Cajamarca not to lose | 54% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 66% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 34% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 64% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 36% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Asociación Deportiva Tarma
- Asociación Deportiva Tarma goals
- FC Cajamarca goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 23.09Cienciano2:1
- 19.09away · Alianza Lima0:2
- 07.09away · FBC Melgar0:3
- 30.08Sport Huancayo1:3
- 22.08away · ADC Juan Pablo II1:5
- 19.09Cusco FC1:2
- 12.09away · Los Chankas2:1
- 04.09Cienciano2:5
- 28.08away · Comerciantes Unidos3:2
- 21.08Atlético Grau1:3
Head to head
- 18.04.2026FC Cajamarca — Asociación Deportiva Tarma2:2
Next matches
- Los ChankasAsociación Deportiva Tarma16 October · Peruvian Liga 15127221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
- FC CajamarcaClub Deportivo Moquegua18 October · Peruvian Liga 15724191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.0
Peruvian Liga 1 on the same day
- 7118101The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 3:1.2.9
- 5125241The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 2:0.3.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →