Peruvian Liga 1 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra
Comerciantes Unidos — ADC Juan Pablo II
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Comerciantes Unidos to win (51%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 51% fails in about 49 matches out of 100 on average.
Comerciantes Unidos are clear favourites: 51% against 24% for the opponent, draw 25%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 60%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Comerciantes Unidos are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Comerciantes Unidos: winless in 4; ADC Juan Pablo II: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 3 meetings: Comerciantes Unidos 2 wins, ADC Juan Pablo II 0, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Comerciantes Unidos — ADC Juan Pablo II What is xG? | 1.8–1.2 | |
| Comerciantes Unidos not to lose | 76% | |
| ADC Juan Pablo II not to lose | 49% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 40% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 58% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 42% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Comerciantes Unidos
- Comerciantes Unidos goals
- ADC Juan Pablo II goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 18.09away · Alianza Atlético1:2
- 12.09Sport Huancayo0:1
- 06.09away · Universitario de Deportes2:2
- 28.08FC Cajamarca2:3
- 22.08away · CD UT Cajamarca3:1
- 20.09Club Deportivo Moquegua4:0
- 11.09away · CD UT Cajamarca2:1
- 06.09Alianza Lima1:1
- 29.08away · Los Chankas4:3
- 22.08Asociación Deportiva Tarma5:1
Head to head
- 18.04.2026ADC Juan Pablo II — Comerciantes Unidos2:2
- 24.10.2025ADC Juan Pablo II — Comerciantes Unidos0:1
- 22.06.2025Comerciantes Unidos — ADC Juan Pablo II3:0
Next matches
- Sporting CristalComerciantes Unidos17 October · Peruvian Liga 17416101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- ADC Juan Pablo IISport Boys17 October · Peruvian Liga 14528271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
Peruvian Liga 1 on the same day
- 7118101The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 3:1.2.9
- 4626281The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:1.3.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →