UEFA Champions League, round 2 · Wednesday, 14 October, MSK · Villa Park
Aston Villa — Fenerbahçe
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 14 October
In short
Aston Villa are clear favourites: 51% against 24% for the opponent, draw 25%.
The model expects few goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 3.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Aston Villa — Fenerbahçe What is xG? | 1.7–1.1 | |
| Aston Villa not to lose | 76% | |
| Fenerbahçe not to lose | 49% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 54% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 46% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Aston Villa
- Aston Villa goals
- Fenerbahçe goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10Brentford2:2
- 19.09away · Tottenham Hotspur3:2
- 16.09away · Coventry City3:1
- 12.09Nottingham Forest1:2
- 08.09away · Club Brugge3:2
- 10.10away · Rizespor3:0
- 20.09Eyüpspor8:0
- 14.09away · Gaziantep FK0:0
- 10.09Roma1:1
- 05.09Beşiktaş1:2
Head to head
- 22.01.2026Fenerbahçe — Aston Villa0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Villarreal | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 11, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Aston Villa | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 12, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Atlético Madrid | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 22, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Roma | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 23, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Fenerbahçe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 24, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Champions League on the same day
- 3727372The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
- 2726472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- 5125241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
- 4426301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- 3827361The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- 5524211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- 5125241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- 1320672The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →