UEFA Champions League, round 2 · Wednesday, 14 October, MSK · Etihad Stadium
Manchester City — Paris Saint-Germain
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 14 October
In short
Manchester City are clear favourites: 50% against 25% for the opponent, draw 25%.
The model expects few goals: 2.9 in total, against a competition average of 3.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- Manchester City: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Facts
- League table: Manchester City — No. 9, 3 pts; Paris Saint-Germain — No. 5, 3 pts.
- Manchester City: 5 wins in a row; Paris Saint-Germain: 4 wins in a row.
- Last 3 meetings: Manchester City 1 win, Paris Saint-Germain 2.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Manchester City — Paris Saint-Germain What is xG? | 1.7–1.2 | |
| Manchester City not to lose | 75% | |
| Paris Saint-Germain not to lose | 50% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Manchester City
- Manchester City goals
- Paris Saint-Germain goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · Liverpool3:0
- 20.09Sunderland5:3
- 17.09Norwich City5:0
- 13.09away · Manchester United1:0
- 08.09away · FC Porto2:0
- 10.10Le Mans3:1
- 20.09away · Marseille2:1
- 13.09away · Brest1:0
- 09.09Slovan Bratislava6:1
- 04.09Monaco1:2
Head to head
- 22.01.2025Paris Saint-Germain — Manchester City4:2
- 24.11.2021Manchester City — Paris Saint-Germain2:1
- 28.09.2021Paris Saint-Germain — Manchester City2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Straight to the round of 16 | Bayern München | 2 | 1 | +5 | 4 |
| 5, Straight to the round of 16 | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 1 | +5 | 3 |
| 6, Straight to the round of 16 | Como | 1 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 8, Straight to the round of 16 | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 9, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Manchester City | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 10, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Villarreal | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
Champions League on the same day
- 3526382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
- 1521642The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.1
- 3626382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:12.8
- 5224231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- 3826361The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- 3426402The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- 5324231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- 1219692The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:33.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →