UEFA Champions League, round 2 · Wednesday, 14 October, MSK · Stamford Bridge

Shakhtar Donetsk — AEK Athens

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Model prediction for 14 October

Shakhtar Donetsk51%
Draw25%
AEK Athens24%
Model estimate at MSK

In short

Shakhtar Donetsk are clear favourites: 51% against 24% for the opponent, draw 25%.

The model expects few goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 3.5.

Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 56%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Shakhtar Donetsk are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Shakhtar Donetsk — AEK Athens What is xG?1.7–1.1
Shakhtar Donetsk not to lose76%
AEK Athens not to lose49%
No draw75%
Both teams to score: yes56%
Both teams to score: no44%
Total over 2.554%
Total under 2.546%

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  • AEK Athens goals
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Form

Shakhtar Donetsk

  • 09.10away · Veres Rivne3:0
  • 20.09LNZ Cherkasy3:0
  • 14.09Chornomorets Odesa2:0
  • 10.09away · PSV Eindhoven1:1
  • 05.09away · Karpaty2:1

AEK Athens

  • 10.10OFI Crete3:0
  • 20.09away · NFC Volos2:1
  • 13.09away · Asteras Tripolis1:1
  • 08.09LASK1:0
  • 05.09Aris Thessaloniki5:0

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
16, Knockout play-off for the round of 16Real Madrid11002–1+13
17, Knockout play-off for the round of 16AEK Athens11001–0+13
18, Knockout play-off for the round of 16Club Brugge21016–603
23, Knockout play-off for the round of 16Fenerbahçe10101–101
24, Knockout play-off for the round of 16Shakhtar Donetsk10101–101
25PSV Eindhoven20111–2-11

Season 2026/27

Full table

Champions League on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →