English Premier League, round 8 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Aston Villa — Manchester City
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Manchester City are clear favourites: 55% against 20% for the opponent, draw 25%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Manchester City are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Aston Villa — Manchester City What is xG? | 1.1–1.9 | |
| Aston Villa not to lose | 45% | |
| Manchester City not to lose | 80% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 58% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 42% |
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Form
- 10.10Brentford2:2
- 19.09away · Tottenham Hotspur3:2
- 16.09away · Coventry City3:1
- 12.09Nottingham Forest1:2
- 08.09away · Club Brugge3:2
- 11.10away · Liverpool3:0
- 20.09Sunderland5:3
- 17.09Norwich City5:0
- 13.09away · Manchester United1:0
- 08.09away · FC Porto2:0
Head to head
- 24.05.2026Manchester City — Aston Villa1:2
- 26.10.2025Aston Villa — Manchester City1:0
- 22.04.2025Manchester City — Aston Villa2:1
- 21.12.2024Aston Villa — Manchester City2:1
- 03.04.2024Manchester City — Aston Villa4:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League | Manchester City | 6 | 6 | +11 | 18 |
| 2, Champions League | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | +5 | 15 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | -6 | 4 |
Premier League on the same day
- ArsenalEvertonpreliminary741881The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
- Coventry CityFulhampreliminary303238XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.6
- ChelseaTottenham Hotspurpreliminary5526191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →