English Premier League, round 8 · Saturday, 24 October, 17:00 MSK

Arsenal — Everton

Model prediction for 24 October

Arsenal74%

Draw18%

Everton8%

Model estimate at 06:53 MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Arsenal are clear favourites: 74% against 8% for the opponent, draw 18%.

2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).

Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 42%.

Why

By the strength ratings Arsenal are about 1.5 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Arsenal — Everton What is xG?		2.0–0.6
Arsenal not to lose		92%
Everton not to lose		26%
No draw		82%
Both teams to score: yes		42%
Both teams to score: no		58%
Total over 2.5		48%
Total under 2.5		52%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Arsenal
Arsenal goals
Everton goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Form

Arsenal

13.10Lille3:0
10.10Leeds United2:1
19.09away · Brighton & Hove Albion0:3
15.09away · Ipswich Town4:2
12.09away · Sunderland2:0

Everton

11.10away · Hull City2:2
19.09Ipswich Town1:0
16.09Wolverhampton Wanderers1:0
12.09away · Tottenham Hotspur0:0
06.09Manchester United2:2

Head to head

14.03.2026Arsenal — Everton2:0
20.12.2025Everton — Arsenal0:1
05.04.2025Everton — Arsenal1:1
14.12.2024Arsenal — Everton0:0
19.05.2024Arsenal — Everton2:1

Full record: 20 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Champions League	Manchester City	6	6	0	0	16–5	+11	18
2, Champions League	Arsenal	6	5	0	1	10–5	+5	15
3, Champions League	Brighton & Hove Albion	6	4	1	1	18–5	+13	13
4, Champions League	Brentford	6	2	4	0	12–6	+6	10
5, Europa League or Conference League	Everton	6	2	4	0	8–5	+3	10
6	Chelsea	6	3	1	2	15–13	+2	10

Season 2026/27

Full table

Premier League on the same day

14:30
Aston VillaManchester Citypreliminary
202555
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
17:00
Coventry CityFulhampreliminary
303238
XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.6
19:30
ChelseaTottenham Hotspurpreliminary
552619
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 74% will not happen in roughly 26 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →