English Premier League, round 8 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Chelsea — Tottenham Hotspur
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Chelsea are clear favourites: 55% against 19% for the opponent, draw 26%.
3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 62%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Chelsea are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Chelsea — Tottenham Hotspur What is xG? | 2.0–1.2 | |
| Chelsea not to lose | 81% | |
| Tottenham Hotspur not to lose | 45% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 62% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 38% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 61% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 39% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Chelsea
- Chelsea goals
- Tottenham Hotspur goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10AFC Bournemouth5:1
- 18.09away · Brentford0:3
- 12.09Hull City2:2
- 09.09Leeds United6:3
- 06.09away · Arsenal1:2
- 10.10away · Manchester United1:1
- 19.09Aston Villa2:3
- 15.09away · Liverpool1:3
- 12.09Everton0:0
- 05.09away · Nottingham Forest0:0
Head to head
- 19.05.2026Chelsea — Tottenham Hotspur2:1
- 01.11.2025Tottenham Hotspur — Chelsea0:1
- 03.04.2025Chelsea — Tottenham Hotspur1:0
- 08.12.2024Tottenham Hotspur — Chelsea3:4
- 02.05.2024Chelsea — Tottenham Hotspur2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5, Europa League or Conference League | Everton | 6 | 2 | +3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds United | 6 | 2 | +3 | 9 |
| 18, Relegation | AFC Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | -6 | 3 |
| 19, Relegation | Tottenham Hotspur | 6 | 0 | -6 | 3 |
| 20, Relegation | Fulham | 6 | 0 | -4 | 2 |
Premier League on the same day
- Aston VillaManchester Citypreliminary2025552The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
- ArsenalEvertonpreliminary741881The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.6
- Coventry CityFulhampreliminary303238XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →