UEFA Champions League, round 3 · Wednesday, 21 October, MSK
Aston Villa — Viking
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Aston Villa are clear favourites: 56% against 21% for the opponent, draw 24%.
The model expects few goals: 2.9 in total, against a competition average of 3.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Aston Villa are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Aston Villa — Viking What is xG? | 1.9–1.1 | |
| Aston Villa not to lose | 79% | |
| Viking not to lose | 44% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Aston Villa
- Aston Villa goals
- Viking goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 10.10Brentford2:2
- 19.09away · Tottenham Hotspur3:2
- 16.09away · Coventry City3:1
- 12.09Nottingham Forest1:2
- 08.09away · Club Brugge3:2
- 13.10Bayern München3:3
- 09.10away · Brann2:0
- 20.09Lillestrøm3:0
- 13.09Kristiansund8:1
- 09.09away · VfB Stuttgart1:3
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Villarreal | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 11, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Aston Villa | 1 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 12, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Atlético Madrid | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 25 | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 0 | -1 | 1 |
| 26 | Viking | 2 | 0 | -2 | 1 |
| 27 | LASK | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
Champions League on the same day
- LilleGalatasaraypreliminary4626281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- ComoManchester Unitedpreliminary5524211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- Bayern MünchenArsenalpreliminary6819131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.1
- Real MadridRB Leipzigpreliminary6919121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- InterShakhtar Donetskpreliminary6122171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
- Sporting CPLASKpreliminary741791The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.3
- Club BruggeLenspreliminary5723201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:12.9
- Real BetisFeyenoordpreliminary4626281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →