UEFA Champions League, round 3 · Wednesday, 21 October, MSK
Inter — Shakhtar Donetsk
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Inter are clear favourites: 63% against 16% for the opponent, draw 21%.
The model expects few goals: 3.0 in total, against a competition average of 3.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Inter are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Inter — Shakhtar Donetsk What is xG? | 2.1–0.9 | |
| Inter not to lose | 84% | |
| Shakhtar Donetsk not to lose | 37% | |
| No draw | 79% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 58% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 42% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Inter
- Inter goals
- Shakhtar Donetsk goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10away · Veres Rivne3:0
- 20.09LNZ Cherkasy3:0
- 14.09Chornomorets Odesa2:0
- 10.09away · PSV Eindhoven1:1
- 05.09away · Karpaty2:1
Head to head
- 24.11.2021Inter — Shakhtar Donetsk2:0
- 28.09.2021Shakhtar Donetsk — Inter0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Fenerbahçe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 21, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 22, Knockout play-off for the round of 16 | Club Brugge | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 25 | Atlético Madrid | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 26 | Inter | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | LASK | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
Champions League on the same day
- LilleGalatasaraypreliminary4426301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- ComoManchester Unitedpreliminary5424221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.9
- Bayern MünchenArsenalpreliminary6819131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.1
- Real MadridRB Leipzigpreliminary7118111The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.2
- Sporting CPLASKpreliminary7317101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.2
- Aston VillaVikingpreliminary5624211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- Club BruggeLenspreliminary5324231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:12.9
- Real BetisFeyenoordpreliminary4626281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 63% will not happen in roughly 37 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →