UEFA Champions League, round 3 · Wednesday, 21 October, MSK
Como — Manchester United
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Como are clear favourites: 55% against 21% for the opponent, draw 24%.
The model expects few goals: 2.9 in total, against a competition average of 3.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Como are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Como — Manchester United What is xG? | 1.8–1.1 | |
| Como not to lose | 79% | |
| Manchester United not to lose | 45% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Como
- Como goals
- Manchester United goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 13.10away · Atlético Madrid0:2
- 10.10Tottenham Hotspur1:1
- 20.09away · Fulham1:1
- 16.09Brighton & Hove Albion2:3
- 13.09Manchester City0:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5, Straight to the round of 16 | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 1 | +5 | 3 |
| 6, Straight to the round of 16 | Como | 1 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 7, Straight to the round of 16 | Manchester United | 2 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 8, Straight to the round of 16 | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
Champions League on the same day
- LilleGalatasaraypreliminary4626281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Bayern MünchenArsenalpreliminary6819131The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.1
- Real MadridRB Leipzigpreliminary6919121The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
- InterShakhtar Donetskpreliminary6122171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.0
- Sporting CPLASKpreliminary741791The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.3
- Aston VillaVikingpreliminary5624211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- Club BruggeLenspreliminary5723201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:12.9
- Real BetisFeyenoordpreliminary4626281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →