Brazilian Serie B, round 33 · Wednesday, 14 October, MSK · Estádio Joaquim Portugal
Athletic Club MG — Londrina
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In short
Final score 2:2: the model's most likely outcome, Athletic Club MG to win (48%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 48% fails in about 52 matches out of 100 on average.
Athletic Club MG are clear favourites: 48% against 24% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 53%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Athletic Club MG are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Athletic Club MG: winless in 4; Londrina: 4 defeats in a row.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Athletic Club MG — Londrina What is xG? | 1.5–1.1 | |
| Athletic Club MG not to lose | 76% | |
| Londrina not to lose | 52% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 53% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 47% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 48% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 52% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Athletic Club MG
- Athletic Club MG goals
- Londrina goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 07.10away · Goiás1:2
- 02.10Sport Recife1:2
- 28.09away · Fortaleza2:2
- 20.09Botafogo SP1:1
- 14.09away · Juventude2:0
- 08.10away · Avaí1:2
- 03.10Criciúma0:2
- 26.09away · Vila Nova0:2
- 21.09Fortaleza1:2
- 16.09Ponte Preta6:0
Head to head
- 20.06.2026Londrina — Athletic Club MG2:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | São Bernardo | 33 | 12 | +10 | 46 |
| 13 | Athletic Club MG | 33 | 10 | +1 | 43 |
| 14 | Náutico | 33 | 11 | -3 | 42 |
| 17, Relegation | Avaí | 33 | 10 | -10 | 36 |
| 18, Relegation | Londrina | 33 | 7 | -7 | 29 |
| 19, Relegation | América-MG | 33 | 4 | -33 | 17 |
Next matches
- AvaíAthletic Club MG18 October · Brasileirao Serie B4628251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2
- LondrinaCuiabá21 October · Brasileirao Serie B · preliminary4130291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →