Serie B, round 8 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Avellino — Padova
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Avellino are clear favourites: 50% against 21% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 48%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Avellino are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Avellino — Padova What is xG? | 1.5–0.9 | |
| Avellino not to lose | 79% | |
| Padova not to lose | 50% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 48% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 52% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 43% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 57% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Avellino
- Avellino goals
- Padova goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 09.10Sampdoria4:1
- 19.09away · Ascoli1:3
- 13.09Palermo1:1
- 06.09away · Modena1:0
- 29.08LR Vicenza3:0
- 11.10Carrarese0:2
- 19.09away · Palermo1:2
- 12.09Ascoli1:0
- 06.09away · Cremonese1:3
- 29.08Hellas Verona1:1
Head to head
- 07.03.2026Avellino — Padova1:0
- 30.09.2025Padova — Avellino2:2
Table
Serie B on the same day
- CremoneseJuve Stabiapreliminary4829231The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.3
- Virtus EntellaMantovapreliminary4229291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.4
- ModenaCesenapreliminary5128211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
- SüdtirolSampdoriapreliminary4331251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.1
- CatanzaroAscolipreliminary4528271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
- ArezzoBeneventopreliminary3830321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →