Serie B, round 8 · Saturday, 24 October, 16:00 MSK

Modena — Cesena

Model prediction for 24 October

Modena51%

Draw28%

Cesena21%

Model estimate at 11:24 MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Modena are clear favourites: 51% against 21% for the opponent, draw 28%.

2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 51%.

Why

By the strength ratings Modena are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.

Facts

League table: Modena — No. 3, 13 pts; Cesena — No. 10, 7 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
Cesena: winless in 4.
Last 4 meetings: Modena 0 wins, Cesena 2, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Modena — Cesena What is xG?		1.6–1.0
Modena not to lose		79%
Cesena not to lose		49%
No draw		72%
Both teams to score: yes		51%
Both teams to score: no		49%
Total over 2.5		46%
Total under 2.5		54%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Modena
Modena goals
Cesena goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Form

Modena

11.10Hellas Verona3:2
20.09Empoli2:1
12.09away · Südtirol1:1
06.09Avellino0:1
28.08away · Cremonese3:0

Cesena

10.10away · Benevento0:2
18.09away · Juve Stabia1:1
12.09Cremonese2:2
06.09Mantova1:1
29.08away · Virtus Entella2:1

Head to head

07.03.2026Modena — Cesena0:0
28.11.2025Cesena — Modena1:0
13.05.2025Modena — Cesena0:1
13.09.2024Cesena — Modena2:2

Full record: 4 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
2, Promotion	Mantova	6	4	2	0	13–6	+7	14
3, Promotion play-offs	Modena	6	4	1	1	11–6	+5	13
4, Promotion play-offs	Südtirol	6	3	3	0	9–3	+6	12
9	Hellas Verona	6	2	1	3	12–10	+2	7
10	Cesena	6	1	4	1	7–8	-1	7
11	Padova	6	2	1	3	5–8	-3	7

Season 2026/27

Full table

Serie B on the same day

16:00
AvellinoPadovapreliminary
502821
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
16:00
CremoneseJuve Stabiapreliminary
482923
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.3
16:00
Virtus EntellaMantovapreliminary
422929
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.4
16:00
SüdtirolSampdoriapreliminary
433125
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.1
18:15
CatanzaroAscolipreliminary
452827
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
20:30
ArezzoBeneventopreliminary
383032
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →